Table 2. Input parameters for our models.
| SW Uganda | KZN | References | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Behavior | |||
| Mean partnership duration (years) | 11.8 | 8.8* | [28] |
| Mean number of partnerships (per person) | 0.8 | 1.0 | [28] |
| Frequency of unprotected sex (per partnership per week) | 2.4 | 2.4 | [49] |
| Distribution of number of partnerships | Men: 0 (35%), 1 (52)%, 2 (10%), 3 (3); Women: 0 (22%), 1 (76%), 2 (2%) | Men: 0 (14%), 1 (66%), 2 (11%), 3 (5%), 4 (2.5%), 5 (2.5%); Women: 0 (24%), 1 (73%), 2 (2%), | [28] |
| Age mixing | Mixing matrix in appendix | Mixing matrix in appendix | [28] |
| Biology | |||
| Duration of: Acute stage Chronic stage Late stage | 135 days | [65] | |
| 1742 days | [66] | ||
| 1424 days | [67] | ||
| Level of: Peak viremia Viral set point Max. late stage viremia | 6.17 log | [68] | |
| 4.2 log | [68] | ||
| 5.05 log | [68] | ||
| Lifespan of untreated individuals | 3301 days | [67] | |
| Infection Transmission | |||
| Per act (chronic stage) | Specific to viral load (details in appendix) | [48] | |
| Mulitipliers for: | |||
| Acute stage | 4.98 | [49] | |
| Late stage | 3.49 | [49] | |
| HSV infection in either partner | 2.14*population prevalence (68%) | [48] | |
| Pregnancy of HIV-infected | 1.7 | [69] | |
| Pregnancy of HIV-uninfected | 2.5 | [69] | |
| Circumcision of uninfected man | 0.53 | [48] | |
| Combination ART | |||
| Change in CD4 | CD4 count recovers by 15 cells/μl every month until pre-infection level [40] or for 3 years [38], whichever is first | Inline | |
| Changes in viral load | Declines to 50 copies/ml in 4 months | [46] | |
| PMTCT | |||
| CD4 count during treatment | Option A: Increases 50 cells/μl from initiation to delivery; Option B: Increases 15 cells/μl every month until pre-infection level; Option B+: Increases 15 cells/μl every month until pre-infection level or 3 years, whichever is first | [40] | |
| CD4 count upon cessation of treatment | Option A: Declines to pre-treatment levels in 1 month [40]; Option B: Declines to pre-treatment levels in 2 months; Option B+[45]: NA | Inline | |
| Viral load during treatment | Option A: Declines 1.1 log from initiation to delivery [40]; Option B: Declines to 50 copies/ml in 4 months [45]; Option B+: Same as Option B [45] | Inline | |
| Viral load upon cessation of treatment | Option A: Increases to pre-treatment levels in 1 month [41]; Option B: Increases to pre-treatment levels in 2 months; Option B+: NA | Inline | |
| Pregnancy | |||
| Age-specific fertility rates (per 1000 person years)*** | See Table S4 in S1 Text | [35] | |
| Eligibility for pregnancy | Age between 15 and 49 years ≥15 months since onset of last pregnancy | ||
| HIV infection and pregnancy | HIV-infected women have a 47% lower age-specificfertility rate | [36] | |
* We increased the mean partnership duration by approximately 3 years to match incidence data.
** We decreased the proportion of women with 0 partners and increased the proportion of women with 1 partner by 20% to balance the total number of partnerships between men and women.
*** Annual fertility rates in UN Data increased by 15% to match empirical data on proportion of 18–49 year old pregnant women at any cross-section