Table 3.

Observed pre-HPV vaccination and estimated post-HPV vaccination proportion of positive screening test and PPV for women entering screening at the age of 23 years

	Pre-vaccinated women				Post-vaccinated women
	All ASCUS+ first samples*	Percentage of first samples N=14 062	All ASCUS+ first samples excluding unresolved samples	Percentage of first resolved samples N=13 838	All ASCUS+ first samples†	Percentage of first samples N=14 062	All ASCUS+ first samples excluding unresolved samples	Percentage of first resolved samples N=13 896
ASCUS+	1218	8.7	994	7.2	906	6.4	740	5.3
Unresolved	224	1.6	NR	NR	166‡	1.2	NR	NR
Cut-off CIN2+
True positive	230	1.6	230	1.7	140	1.0	140	1.0
False positive	764	5.4	764	5.5	600	4.3	600	4.3
PPV%	18.8		23.1		15.5		18.9
Cut-off CIN3+
True positive	141	1.0	141	1.0	88	0.6	88	0.6
False positive	853	6.1	853	6.2	652	4.6	652	4.7
PPV%	11.6		14.2		9.7		11.9

*ASCUS+ samples that are inadequately followed up or have a missing cytology/histology code after follow-up do not appear in the true-positive or false-positive groups.

†Assuming the same sample size as pre-vaccination data, as the post-vaccination sample size is unknown.

‡Number of unresolved samples estimated at 906×(224/1218)=166.

ASCUS, Atypical Squamous Cells of Undetermined Significance; CIN, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; HPV, human papillomavirus; NR, not reported; PPV, positive predictive value.