TABLE 3—
Predictors of Repeat Adoption: US States, 1980–2010
| Variable | Baseline Model (n = 10 500), OR (95% CI) | Political Hypothesis (n = 10 500), OR (95% CI) | Neighbor Hypothesis (n = 10 500), OR (95% CI) | Policy Silo Hypothesis (n = 10 500), OR (95% CI) | Innovativeness Hypothesis (n = 10 381), OR (95% CI) |
| Population aged 15–24 y, % | 1.01 (0.85, 1.20) | 1.01 (0.86, 1.17) | 1.01 (0.86, 1.19) | 1.04 (0.94, 1.15) | 1.04 (0.94, 1.15) |
| Unemployment rate, % | 1.05 (0.98, 1.12) | 1.05 (0.98, 1.12) | 1.06 (0.99, 1.14) | 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) | 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) |
| Risk factors, MVC deaths per 1000 population | 1.00 (0.97, 1.04) | 0.99 (0.96, 1.03) | 0.99 (0.95, 1.03) | 0.98 (0.96, 1.01) | 0.99 (0.96, 1.01) |
| Health behaviors, alcohol consumption | 1.11 (0.75, 1.63) | 1.11 (0.76, 1.64) | 1.18 (0.82, 1.68) | 1.24* (1.01, 1.52) | 1.24* (1.01, 1.52) |
| Unified Republican government | 0.78 (0.45, 1.35) | 0.94 (0.51, 1.73) | 1.08 (0.71, 1.66) | 1.10 (0.72, 1.68) | |
| Divided government | 0.93 (0.68, 1.27) | 0.99 (0.70, 1.40) | 1.03 (0.84, 1.25) | 1.04 (0.85, 1.26) | |
| Liberal state ideology (0–100) | 0.99 (0.98, 1.01) | 1.00 (0.98, 1.02) | 1.00 (0.99, 1.02) | 1.01 (0.99, 1.02) | |
| Squire index | 0.89 (0.57, 1.40) | 0.90 (0.55, 1.49) | 1.09 (0.77, 1.56) | 1.10 (0.77, 1.56) | |
| Log tax per capita, $1000 | 1.14 (0.57, 2.27) | 1.29 (0.61, 2.74) | 1.12 (0.75, 1.66) | 1.10 (0.74, 1.63) | |
| Neighbors that have the same policy | 1.23*** (1.11, 1.37) | 1.30*** (1.18, 1.44) | 1.30*** (1.18, 1.44) | ||
| No. previous laws adopted | 1.97*** (1.81, 2.14) | 1.96*** (1.80, 2.13) | |||
| Has any smoking policies | 1.07 (0.81, 1.40) | 1.06 (0.81, 1.39) | |||
| Has any alcohol policies | 0.90 (0.72, 1.11) | 0.90 (0.72, 1.12) | |||
| Has any motor vehicle occupant safety policies | 1.18 (0.95, 1.46) | 1.18 (0.95, 1.46) | |||
| Overall policy innovativeness score | 1.02 (0.98, 1.06) | ||||
| Federal minimum legal drinking age of 21 y, 1988 | 1.05 (0.92, 1.20) | 1.05 (0.92, 1.20) | 0031.05 (0.91, 1.21) | 0.93 (0.84, 1.04) | 0.94 (0.85, 1.05) |
| AIC | 12 782.240 | 12 784.022 | 12 572.109 | 11 458.148 | 11 345.029 |
| BIC | 12 854.830 | 12 892.909 | 12 688.255 | 11 603.330 | 11 497.231 |
Note. AIC = Akaike information criterion; BIC = Bayesian information criterion; CI = confidence interval; MVC = motor vehicle crash; OR = odds ratio. Models also control for population size, miles of road per capita, time, time2, and geographic division.
*P < .05; ***P < .001.