Table 1. Climate change and management scenarios with associated changes to input layers.

n.c. = no change from baseline (current conditions); plus sign = 1 standard deviation increase above baseline; minus sign = 1 standard deviation decrease below baseline condition, except for temperature (0.2 degree above/below climatological mean). CoTS = Crown-of-thorns-starfish. Scenarios refer to the change in conditions after approximately a 10-year timeframe.

Scenario number (see text for description)	Temperature	Cyclones	Disease	Bleaching	Irradiance	CoTS	Nutrients	Sediment	Pollution	Fishing
1	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.
2	+	+	+	+	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.
3	+	+	+	+	n.c.	n.c	-	-	-	-
4	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.	-	-	-	-