Table 2.

Comparison of the four demographic scenario models in retrieving the haplotype (h) and nucleotide (π) diversity observed for Tabebuia aurea, obtained from 2000 simulations using the software BayeSSC.

Models	Chloroplast						ITS						ENM %
	ΔAIC		AICw		P		ΔAIC		AICw		P
	h	π	h	π	h	π	h	π	h	π	h	π
Stability	11.9	9.2	0.002	0.005	0.005	0.001	7.3	4.2	0.022	0.083	0.001	0.002	30.7
Retraction	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	4.0
Expansion	0.0	0.0	0.789	0.571	0.991	0.959	0.0	0.0	0.865	0.671	0.971	0.876	65.3
Multiple Refugia	2.7	0.5	0.209	0.424	0.435	0.354	4.1	2.3	0.113	0.243	0.743	0.623	–

ΔAIC, the difference of AICw between each model and the best model; AICw, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) weights; P, one-tailed probability of not rejecting the model. ENM %, the percentage of the 52 paleodistribution maps that represent each demographic scenario. See Figure 3 for details about the demographic scenarios. h, haplotype diversity; π, nucleotide diversity.