Table 4.

Closure model performance as quantified by variance explained (top) and normalized mean error (bottom). Models (i)–(iv) include holding constant either CCN, activation ratio (AR), κ, or size distribution (SD). Model (v) uses the cluster properties and associations (see Fig. 5 and Table 3), model (vi) uses the same assumptions as model (iii) except that κ is determined from cluster associations, and model (vii) is a reconstruction for reference only. A dash (–) indicates that the result is not available or performed so poorly it cannot be quantified by the metric.

				Model (%VE)
		(i) Const. CCN	(ii) Const. AR	(iii) Const. κ	(iv) Const. SD	(v) Clus. only	(vi) Clus. κ	(vii) Ref.
All	ALL	–	3.7	63.2	43.9	62.3	68.4	99.6
	W	–	44.9	81.6	72.5	78.4	84.1	99.7
	S	–	–	25.3	55.3	3.5	37.5	99.7
	PM	–	–	40.5	–	43.1	34.2	99.4
	M	–	–	35.5	–	–	42.3	99.1
	F	–	–	40.3	31.1	3.4	54.6	99.4
Daily	ALL	–	6.1	70.0	47.0	–	–	99.4
	W	–	35.9	81.2	71.6	–	–	99.5
	S	–	6.5	–	62.1	–	–	99.0
	PM	–	0.2	52.5	15.4	–	–	98.7
	M	–	–	64.0	–	–	–	98.5
	F	–	–	59.9	17.8	–	–	98.1
Weekly	ALL	–	7.1	67.7	43.3	–	–	99.0
	W	–	15.8	66.4	77.8	–	–	98.8
	S	–	6.0	33.7	74.1	–	–	98.3
	PM	–	45.4	72.9	75.8	–	–	96.9
	M	–	–	43.9	–	–	–	96.3
	F	–	3.9	89.5	0.3	–	–	97.9
				Model (%NME)
		(i) Const. CCN	(ii) Const. AR	(iii) Const. κ	(iv) Const. SD	(v) Clus. only	(vi) Clus. κ	(vii) Ref.
All	ALL	73	72	45	55	45	41	4.4
	W	94	70	40	49	44	38	5.2
	S	70	73	60	47	69	55	4.0
	PM	46	59	36	53	35	38	3.7
	M	34	58	27	58	36	26	3.3
	F	53	60	41	44	52	36	4.0
Daily	ALL	53	52	29	40	–	–	4.2
	W	63	51	27	34	–	–	4.6
	S	48	47	60	30	–	–	4.7
	PM	33	32	22	30	–	–	3.7
	M	26	37	16	37	–	–	3.2
	F	31	34	20	28	–	–	4.2
Weekly	ALL	36	35	20	27	–	–	3.6
	W	36	33	21	17	–	–	4.0
	S	27	26	22	14	–	–	3.5
	PM	22	16	11	11	–	–	3.8
	M	16	20	12	25	–	–	3.1
	F	21	21	6.8	21	–	–	3.1