Table 1.

Districts with greatest expansion and contraction in tsetse distributions from 2001–2009 period to 2051–2059 period

Expansion
District/area of district (km2)	Expansion (km2)	Population density	Predominant livelihood strategy
Narok/17,731.80	1,866.41	33.39	PA/WLUL/MF-H
Uasin Gishu/3,373.89	962.35	232.35a	MF-H/WLUL
Nakuru/7,605.95	708.68	180.00a	MF-H/MF-M/WLUL
Kericho/2,581.04	638.84	285.50a	MF-H/WLUL
Bomet/2,369.87	600.74	247.72a	MF-H/MF-M/WLUL/FMF
Nyandarua/3,270.53	574.98	170.68a	MF-H/MF-M/WLUL
Nyeri/3,370.60	567.72	219.09a	MF-H/MF-M/FMF/WLUL
Nandi/2,873.14	485.81	218.81a	MF-H
Koibatek/2,996.59	394.29	53.88	MF-H/MF-M
Elgeyo/1,450.21	278.84	113.31a	MF-M/PA

Contraction
District/area of district (km2)	Contraction (km2)	Population density	Predominant livelihood strategy
Kitui/30,391.70	662.81	30.88	MF-M/WLUL/FMF
Kajiado/21,847.20	511.92	18.63	PA/MF-M/WLUL
Turkana/61,037.30	397.87	8.3	PA/WLUL
West Pokot/9,284.93	303.62	36.86	PA/MF-M
Makueni/8,281.20	206.32	105.92a	MF-M
Baringo/7,943.17	187.35	34.72	PA/MF-M
Machakos/6,021.20	167.22	176.78a	MF-M/WLUL
Koibatek/2,996.59	144.88	53.88	MF-H/MF-M
Samburu/21,189.30	131.52	7.96	PA
Isiolo/25,114.10	115.09	4.65	PA

Note: Expansion represents the potential increase in tsetse distributions within a district from the 2001–2009 period to the 2051–2059 period. Contraction represents the potential decrease in tsetse distributions within a district from the 2001–2009 period to the 2051–2059 period. Population figures calculated using Landscan (2008) product for Kenya. MF-H = mixed farming—high potential; MF-M = mixed farming—marginal; PA = pastoral or agropastoral; WLUL = waged labor or urban livelihood; FMF = forests or mixed fishing. Livelihood strategies determined using World Resources Institute et al. (2007).

^aIndicates that district population is greater than the 2008 average population density of 68 people/km² (Landscan 2008).