Table 2.
Estimated Probability of Substantiation
| M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B | SE | B | SE | B | SE | B | SE | |
| Time Constraints | ||||||||
| Allows more than 30 days to complete investigation | .092 | .084 | .085 | .083 | .087 | .083 | .069 | .073 |
| Allows 3+ between removal and initial hearing | −.036 | .053 | .004 | .050 | .003 | .049 | −.018 | .045 |
| Increase in agency workload | −.008 | .060 | −.014 | .056 | −.000 | .055 | −.001 | .050 |
| Service Accessibility Constraints | ||||||||
| Collaboration with other social institutions | −.162* | .065 | −.155** | .056 | −.152** | .055 | −.155** | .050 |
| Can provide services for unsubstantiated cases | −.237** | .086 | −.242** | .083 | −.232** | .083 | −.199* | .078 |
| Service availability | .084 | .083 | .110 | .089 | .106 | .086 | .093 | .079 |
| Community has system of care | .021 | .095 | .030 | .096 | .027 | .096 | −.005 | .092 |
| Agency lost 25% or more of funding in last 12 months | .140 | .155 | .159 | .120 | .158 | .124 | .158 | .132 |
| Decision-Making Constraints | ||||||||
| Consent decree | .160+ | .083 | .178+ | .097 | .175+ | .094 | .138 | .086 |
| Structural decision making model | −.238** | .078 | −.230** | .072 | −.222** | .071 | −.200** | .064 |
| Number standardized assessments used | .023+ | .012 | .017 | .013 | .017 | .013 | .021+ | .012 |
| County Characteristics | ||||||||
| % of county black 2008 | .003 | .002 | .003 | .002 | .002 | .002 | ||
| % of county Hispanic 2008 | −.006+ | .004 | −.006+ | .004 | −.007* | .003 | ||
| County population 2008 | .009 | .033 | .008 | .033 | .003 | .031 | ||
| High arrest rate | −.048 | .102 | −.040 | .099 | −.033 | .090 | ||
| High poverty rate | −.047 | .057 | −.042 | .056 | −.044 | .052 | ||
| Caseworker Characteristics | ||||||||
| Social Work degree | .001 | .032 | −.002 | .030 | ||||
| Advanced degree | .052* | .025 | .056* | .023 | ||||
| Years of experience | .002 | .002 | .001 | .002 | ||||
| Average number of new investigations - Past 3M | .000 | .001 | −.000 | .001 | ||||
| Family Risk Factors | ||||||||
| CPS history | −.003 | .019 | ||||||
| Caregiver mental health/substance abuse problems | .227*** | .035 | ||||||
| Domestic violence | .195*** | .041 | ||||||
| Poor parenting skills | .186*** | .040 | ||||||
| Economic hardship | .055 | .053 | ||||||
| Child safety/Child has special needs | .101*** | .022 | ||||||
| Child Demographics | ||||||||
| Black | .029 | .026 | ||||||
| Hispanic | .047 | .037 | ||||||
| Other race | .015 | .037 | ||||||
| Age | −.000 | .002 | ||||||
Notes: Models estimated using multi-level sampling weights. Cases=5,872. Agencies=85. Counties=83.
+
p<.1
*
p<.05
**
p<.01
***
p<.001