Table 5.

Predictors of Progression to HGD or EAC Among Patients Undergoing Surveillance Endoscopy Without Ablation

Risk Factor (no. of patients with complete data for factor)	Univariate Model (N=125)*		Multivariate Model (N=77)
	Hazard Ratio (95% CI)	P value	Adjusted Hazard Ratio (95% CI)**	P value
Age, per yr (125)	1.02 [0.99–1.05]	0.19
BMI, per unit (75)	0.98 [0.90–1.06]	0.57
Maximum length of Barrett’s segment, per cm (121)	1.16 [1.07–1.25]	<0.01	1.08 [0.97–1.19]	0.15
Incident LGD^ (90)	0.45 [0.19–1.02]	0.06
Persistent LGD# (89)	3.41 [1.37–8.44]	0.01
Presence of nodularity (116)	3.00 [1.30–6.93]	0.01	3.12 [1.18–8.25]	0.02
Multifocal dysplasia (90)	3.65 [2.03–6.56]	<0.01	3.09 [1.49–6.41]	0.002
Tobacco (84, ref: not active)	0.89 [0.34–2.38]	0.82
Aspirin (82, ref: non-user)	0.40 [0.15–1.08]	0.07	0.42 [0.10–1.78]	0.24
Use of PPI (86, ref: non-user)	1.04 [0.45–2.37]	0.93
Diagnosis after 2006 (125)	1.12 [0.52–2.40]	0.77

^*Based on 125 patients; 36 progressors and 89 non-progressors at two-years from initial surveillance endoscopy. Hazard ratios derived from Cox regression.

^**Only 7 candidate factors with p values below 0.20 in the univariate analysis or with evidence of effect modification or confounding were considered for the final multivariate analysis. Age, incident cases, and persistent LGD were not statistically significant associated with progression in the final model (p>0.05) and were removed. Length of Barrett’s and use of aspirin were not statistically significantly associated with progression but were retained in the final model because removing them resulted in a >15% change in HR for nodularity and multifocality. Patients with missing data for candidate predictors in the final multivariate model were excluded. CI denotes confidence interval.

^{^}Incident LGD defined as having had surveillance endoscopies with Barrett’s without dysplasia preceding the diagnosis of LGD (i.e. diagnosis of non-dysplastic Barrett’s prior to diagnosis of LGD captured within study period)

^#Persistent LGD defined as patients who had at least two separate endoscopies with a diagnosis of LGD during the study period as compared to only one endoscopy session demonstrating biopsies with LGD.