Table 1.

Simulation results of the population-based design and prospective design for the realistic scenario. The table shows the average annual progression rate and the cumulative cancer incidence rates for both i) EAC diagnosis and ii) HGD and EAC diagnosis for follow up lengths of 5,10,15 and 20 years. In addition, the average number of person-years is shown for each scenario. BE: Barrett’s esophagus; EAC: Esophageal adenocarcinoma

Annual progression rate
	EAC			HGD and EAC
Follow up length	Population-based	Prospective	Difference	Population-based	Prospective	Difference
5 year follow up	0.19%	0.36%	92%	0.27%	0.56%	110%
10 year follow up	0.43%	0.53%	22%	0.48%	0.64%	34%
15 year follow up	0.57%	0.62%	9%	0.61%	0.72%	18%
20 year follow up	0.63%	0.65%	5%	0.66%	0.74%	13%
Cumulative progression rate
	EAC			HGD and EAC
	Population-based	Prospective		Population-based	Prospective	Difference
5 year follow up	0.9%	1.8%	91%	1.3%	2.8%	108%
10 year follow up	4.0%	4.8%	21%	4.4%	5.8%	33%
15 year follow up	7.0%	7.6%	8%	7.5%	8.7%	17%
20 year follow up	9.1%	9.5%	4%	9.6%	10.6%	11%
Average number of person-years per BE patient
	EAC			HGD and EAC
	Population-based	Prospective		Population-based	Prospective
5 year follow up	5.0	5.0		5.0	4.9
10 year follow up	9.2	9.1		9.0	8.6
15 year follow up	12.4	12.3		12.0	11.3
20 year follow up	14.6	14.5		14.0	13.0