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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2015 Aug 31.
Published in final edited form as: Ann Epidemiol. 2014 Dec 5;25(3):208–213.e1. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2014.11.011

Table 2b. U.S. colorectal cancer deaths in 2010 attributable to nonuse of screening according to Levin's formula.

Variable Population subgroup by age
50-64 65-74 75-100 All
Total population (million) 1 59.1 21.9 18.6 99.6
Estimated number of CRC deaths without screening (not assessed)
Actual number of CRC deaths in the population2 12,700 12,300 26,500 51,500
Estimated number of CRC deaths with full uptake of screening (Levin) 6,400 7,300 14,100 27,900
CRC deaths prevented by current screening (deaths if theoretical no screening – actual deaths)
CRC deaths attributable to residual non-screening (actual deaths – deaths if 100% screening) 6,200 5,000 12,400 23,600
Attributable fraction:
Fraction of CRC deaths attributable to non-screening if theoretical no screening, %3 68% 68% 68% 68%
Fraction of actual CRC deaths attributable to non-screening, % [Min,Max] 4 49% [36%, 59%] 41% [28%, 50%] 47% [34%, 57%] 46% [33%, 56%]
1

Population estimates were based on U.S. Census Bureau population estimates(32). The overall population size in MISCAN was scaled to this number.

2

CRC mortality numbers were derived by multiplying CRC mortality rates from 2010 SEER data with the population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau(31, 32). Likewise, numbers corresponding with the attributable fraction of CRC mortality were derived by multiplying the estimated PAF based on relative mortality rates with the observed number of deaths.

3

Based on the age-adjusted hazard rate for colonoscopy use derived by Nishihara and colleagues (33)

4

The minimum to maximum range was based on using respectively the 95% upper and lower confidence bound for the efficacy of screening reported by Nishihara and colleagues(33).