Table 4.
Lifetime risk for incident CKD stages 3A, 3B, or 4 by starting age, stratified by sex
| Baseline Age (yr) | Years from Baseline Age | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | |
| Stage 3A | |||||
| Women | |||||
| 45 | 2.8 (1.9 to 3.8) | 6.3 (5.1 to 7.6) | 15.7 (14.0 to 17.5) | 33.8 (30.3 to 37.4) | 38.5 (25.8 to 51.1) |
| 55 | 4.4 (3.4 to 5.3) | 10.3 (8.9 to 11.7) | 30.4 (28.0 to 32.7) | 36.7 (33.5 to 39.9) | |
| 65 | 10.4 (8.8 to 11.9) | 24.1 (21.7 to 26.5) | 33.8 (30.3 to 37.3) | ||
| 75 | 13.9 (10.7 to 17.2) | 23.2 (18.8 to 27.6) | |||
| 80 | 16.7 (11.5 to 21.9) | 21.7 (13.6 to 29.8) | |||
| Men | |||||
| 45 | 0.5 (0.1 to 0.9) | 2.4 (1.6 to 3.2) | 8.0 (6.5 to 9.5) | 16.6 (13.1 to 20.0) | 28.7 (20.1 to 37.2) |
| 55 | 2.2 (1.5 to 3.0) | 6.0 (4.8 to 7.2) | 15.2 (13.3 to 17.1) | 28.3 (25.3 to 31.3) | |
| 65 | 4.5 (3.3 to 5.8) | 11.3 (9.4 to 13.3) | 27.6 (24.2 to 31.0) | ||
| 75 | 12.1 (9.2 to 14.9) | 24.1 (19.9 to 28.3) | |||
| 80 | 18.2 (13.5 to 23.0) | 16.9 (10.8 to 23.0) | |||
| Stage 3B | |||||
| Women | |||||
| 45 | 0 (0 to 0) | 0.1 (0 to 0.2) | 0.7 (0.2 to 1.2) | 4.4 (1.9 to 6.9) | 19.4 (8.9 to 29.9) |
| 55 | 0.2 (0 to 0.4) | 0.7 (0.3 to 1.1) | 4.4 (3.3 to 5.5) | 19.7 (16.8 to 22.7) | |
| 65 | 0.8 (0.4 to 1.2) | 3.9 (2.8 to 4.9) | 20.0 (16.9 to 23.0) | ||
| 75 | 7.0 (5.2 to 8.8) | 18.1 (14.8 to 21.4) | |||
| 80 | 13.1 (9.6 to 16.6) | 21.5 (15.3 to 27.8) | |||
| Men | |||||
| 45 | 0 (0 to 0) | 0.1 (0 to 0.3) | 0.4 (0 to 0.8) | 3.1 (0.9 to 5.3) | 7.9 (2.3 to 13.6) |
| 55 | 0.2 (0 to 0.4) | 0.3 (0 to 0.6) | 3.1 (2.1 to 4) | 8.1 (6.0 to 10.2) | |
| 65 | 0.8 (0.3 to 1.3) | 3.1 (2.1 to 4.1) | 8.7 (6.5 to 10.9) | ||
| 75 | 3.3 (1.8 to 4.8) | 6.8 (4.4 to 9.2) | |||
| 80 | 4.3 (1.8 to 6.8) | 11.4 (6.5 to 16.2) | |||
| Stage 4 | |||||
| Women | |||||
| 45 | 0.1 (0 to 0.2) | 0.1 (0 to 0.2) | 0.3 (0 to 0.6) | 0.8 (0.3 to 1.2) | 3.6 (2.2 to 5.0) |
| 55 | 0.1 (0 to 0.2) | 0.2 (0 to 0.4) | 0.7 (0.3 to 1.1) | 3.5 (2.1 to 5) | |
| 65 | 0.1 (0 to 0.3) | 0.5 (0.1 to 0.9) | 3.5 (2.0 to 4.9) | ||
| 75 | 1.4 (0.6 to 2.2) | 3.2 (1.7 to 4.7) | |||
| 80 | 1.9 (0.6 to 3.3) | 7.0 (2.2 to 11.8) | |||
| Men | |||||
| 45 | 0 (0 to 0) | 0 (0 to 0) | 0.2 (0 to 0.4) | 0.7 (0.3 to 1.2) | 3.4 (1.9 to 4.8) |
| 55 | 0.2 (0 to 0.4) | 0.2 (0 to 0.4) | 0.7 (0.3 to 1.2) | 3.5 (2.0 to 5.0) | |
| 65 | 0.2 (0 to 0.4) | 0.6 (0.2 to 1.1) | 3.7 (2.0 to 5.4) | ||
| 75 | 0.7 (0.1 to 1.4) | 3.5 (1.7 to 5.4) | |||
| 80 | 3.2 (1.2 to 5.2) | 7.0 (3.4 to 10.6) | |||
Cumulative risk is shown as the percentage (95% confidence interval). Lifetime risk estimates are adjusted for competing risk of death. Cumulative risk was not determined for missing cells because of the small number of events.