Table 4.

Simulation results for the proposed method DTM2, and for 2-cycle extensions (3+3)a, (3+3)b, ECRM of standard phase I methods, and the 2-cycle extension ETEOR of the phase I-II method of Li et al. (2006). $\overline{\stackrel{‒}{U}}$ = mean empirical utility, Q_select = mean payoff of d_select. Empirical percentages Pr(Tox) and Pr(Eff) include patients who received at least cycle 1 of treatment.

Scenarios	Criterion	DTM2	(3+3)a	(3+3)b	ECRM	ETEOR
1	Ū	66.48	59.27	58.81	56.56	61.90
	Qselect	57.77	54.36	52.30	51.75	52.43
	Pr(Tox)	0.25	0.22	0.23	0.27	0.25
	Pr(Eff)	0.07	0.03	0.03	0.05	0.07
	% completed trials	2.3	88.6	96.5	99.6	4.4
2	$\overline{\stackrel{‒}{U}}$	136.35	124.36	118.32	115.86	122.13
	Qselect	135.76	103.85	104.48	102.43	108.47
	Pr(Tox)	0.39	0.30	0.33	0.36	0.35
	Pr(Eff)	0.72	0.58	0.55	0.56	0.60
	% completed trials	99.4	39.2	64.7	95.6	78.2
3	$\overline{\stackrel{‒}{U}}$	94.23	85.95	85.75	89.93	88.04
	Qselect	84.39	77.98	80.14	78.43	78.47
	Pr(Tox)	0.38	0.27	0.27	0.30	0.26
	Pr(Eff)	0.38	0.27	0.27	0.33	0.28
	% completed trials	79.4	96.6	99.2	100.0	78.50
4	Ū	75.84	81.81	80.12	85.40	84.94
	Qselect	69.49	74.92	75.76	78.67	78.87
	Pr(Tox)	0.51	0.25	0.26	0.29	0.28
	Pr(Eff)	0.29	0.22	0.21	0.29	0.27
	% completed trials	96.7	83.2	94.7	99.4	81.7
5	Ū	66.65	52.87	52.72	50.41	NA
	Qselect	50.64	40.66	40.70	40.61	NA
	Pr(Tox)	0.84	0.43	0.44	0.53	NA
	Pr(Eff)	0.35	0.08	0.04	0.03	NA
	% completed trials	0.4	6.8	20.0	9.0	0.0
6	$\overline{\stackrel{‒}{U}}$	96.43	82.82	79.27	81.50	86.14
	Qselect	92.78	70.30	71.28	71.29	76.24
	Pr(Tox)	0.45	0.28	0.32	0.32	0.32
	Pr(Eff)	0.41	0.24	0.23	0.25	0.29
	% completed trials	90.9	51.5	74.7	97.6	58.3
7	Ū	91.88	82.66	79.31	80.99	86.32
	Qselect	84.91	70.28	71.27	71.16	76.34
	Pr(Tox)	0.47	0.28	0.32	0.32	0.32
	Pr(Eff)	0.38	0.24	0.22	0.25	0.29
	% completed trials	90.3	51.4	73.6	97.5	58.7
8	Ū	95.92	80.24	76.09	79.83	80.75
	Qselect	93.22	68.23	69.26	69.28	70.73
	Pr(Tox)	0.54	0.34	0.36	0.37	0.34
	Pr(Eff)	0.45	0.25	0.22	0.27	0.27
	% completed trials	84.7	49.4	73.2	97.6	57.9