Table 3.
Predicted daily health services use based on AQHI and pollutant levels
| AQHI=3 |
AQHI=6 |
AQHI=10 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Low-health risk) |
(Moderate-health risk) |
(High-health risk) |
||||||
| Predicted daily rate* | Expected number of visits† |
Predicted daily rate* | Expected number of visits† |
Per cent change‡ | Predicted daily rate* | Expected number of visits† |
Per cent change‡ | |
| Outpatient visits (sorted by highest to lowest expected no. of visits) | ||||||||
| Hypertension | 5.83 | 15 834 | 6.41 | 17 387 | 9.8 | 7.26 | 19 697 | 24.4 |
| Diabetes | 10.72 | 12 236 | 11.79 | 13 450 | 9.9 | 13.37 | 15 258 | 24.7 |
| Non-lung cancers | 5.53 | 7 437 | 6.38 | 8 581 | 15.4 | 7.72 | 10 384 | 39.6 |
| Asthma | 1.80 | 3 366 | 1.97 | 3 681 | 9.3 | 2.21 | 4 146 | 23.2 |
| Stroke | 5.21 | 2 648 | 5.24 | 2 666 | 0.7 | 5.29 | 2 691 | 1.6 |
| COPD | 2.41 | 1 660 | 2.82 | 1 940 | 16.9 | 3.47 | 2 388 | 43.9 |
| Angina | 1.51 | 1 544 | 1.70 | 1 741 | 12.8 | 2.00 | 2 045 | 32.4 |
| Congestive heart failure | 6.19 | 1 412 | 6.63 | 1 512 | 7.1 | 7.26 | 1 657 | 17.4 |
| Ischaemic heart disease | 5.18 | 1 138 | 5.43 | 1 193 | 4.9 | 5.79 | 1 271 | 11.8 |
| Acute myocardial infarction | 1.88 | 307 | 1.69 | 276 | −10.3 | 1.46 | 238 | −22.4 |
| Lung Cancer | 0.46 | 9 | 0.45 | 8 | −3.8 | 0.42 | 8 | −8.5 |
| Hospitalisations (sorted by highest to lowest expected number of visits) | ||||||||
| Non-lung cancers | 0.19 | 250 | 0.20 | 270 | 7.9 | 0.22 | 299 | 19.3 |
| Ischaemic heart disease | 0.44 | 97 | 0.42 | 91 | −6.1 | 0.38 | 84 | −13.6 |
| Diabetes | 0.06 | 73 | 0.07 | 82 | 11.8 | 0.08 | 95 | 29.7 |
| COPD | 0.09 | 64 | 0.10 | 71 | 10.7 | 0.12 | 81 | 26.7 |
| Acute myocardial infarction | 0.40 | 65 | 0.36 | 59 | −10.3 | 0.31 | 51 | −22.4 |
| Congestive heart failure | 0.24 | 54 | 0.25 | 58 | 6.1 | 0.27 | 63 | 14.8 |
| Stroke | 0.09 | 47 | 0.09 | 44 | −5.3 | 0.08 | 41 | −11.8 |
| Angina | 0.03 | 32 | 0.03 | 34 | 7.9 | 0.04 | 38 | 19.4 |
| Asthma | 0.01 | 21 | 0.01 | 22 | 2.0 | 0.01 | 22 | 4.8 |
| Lung Cancer | 1.03 | 20 | 0.92 | 17 | −11.0 | 0.79 | 15 | −23.7 |
| Hypertension | 0.00 | 7 | 0.00 | 8 | 7.2 | 0.00 | 9 | 17.5 |
*Predicted daily average rates per 1000 population were obtained from the adjusted Poisson regression models.
†Expected counts were calculated by multiplying the predicted rates to the average disease prevalence (we used the Ontario disease-specific prevalence population presented in table 1).
‡Per cent change is calculated as compared to when AQHI=3.
AQHI, Air Quality Health Index; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.