. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2016 Oct 1.

Published in final edited form as: Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol. 2015 Jun 17;120(4):474–482.e2. doi: 10.1016/j.oooo.2015.05.023

Table 2.

Probability of correct 7-level diagnosis (normal, benign, dysplastic mild, dysplastic moderate, dysplastic severe, dysplastic carcinoma in situ, malignant) with two reviewers and the use of an adjudicator when the two reviewers disagree. The values of Pc and Pw represent the probability of a correct and wrong diagnosis, respectively. Even though the model assumptions area a simplification of reality, these probabilities so derived do suggest the substantial gains in correctly diagnosing the lesions that are likely to be achieved through our adjudication process.

Probability Scenario	Reviewer A	Reviewer B	Adjudicator	Probability		Final Diagnosis
Probability Scenario	Reviewer A	Reviewer B	Adjudicator	Equation	Probability	Final Diagnosis
1	Correct	Correct	N/A	Pc *Pc	0.664	Correct
2	Wrong	Wrong	N/A	Pw * Pw	0.034	Wrong
3	Correct	Wrong	Correct	Pc * Pw * Pc	0.123	Correct
4	Correct	Wrong	Wrong	Pc* Pw * Pw	0.028	Wrong
5	Wrong	Correct	Correct	Pw * Pc * Pc	0.123	Correct
6	Wrong	Correct	Wrong	Pw * Pc * Pw	0.028	Wrong
Total Probability of Correct Diagnosis					0.91 (91.0%)
Total Probability of Wrong Diagnosis					0.090 (9.0%)
Overall Total Probability					1.00 (100%)