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. 2015 Feb 20;107(3):dju429. doi: 10.1093/jnci/dju429

Table 2.

A summary of the simulation study*

Metric DTC 1 DTC 2
3+3+ DEC CRM S +DEC CRM L 3+3+ DEC CRM S +DEC CRM L
Prob (declaring all doses toxic) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.02
Proportion of trials that treat ≥ k patients at estimated MTD k = 10 0.55 0.71 0.83 0.55 0.52 0.68
k = 15 0.55 0.69 0.69 0.55 0.51 0.36
Proportion of trials that select the true MTD and treat
k patients at true MTD k = 10 0.14 0.31 0.36 0.17 0.22 0.31
k = 15 0.14 0.31 0.31 0.17 0.22 0.16
DTC 3 DTC 4
3+3+ DEC CRM S +DEC CRM L 3+3+ DEC CRM S +DEC CRM L
Prob (declaring all doses toxic) 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.02
Proportion of trials that treat ≥ k patients at estimated MTD k = 10 0.52 0.57 0.74 0.50 0.54 0.76
k = 15 0.52 0.56 0.48 0.50 0.52 0.57
Proportion of trials that select the true MTD and treat
k patients at true MTD k = 10 0.11 0.21 0.35 0.15 0.28 0.48
k = 15 0.11 0.21 0.23 0.15 0.27 0.39
DTC 5 DTC 6
3+3+ DEC CRM S +DEC CRM L 3+3+ DEC CRM S +DEC CRM L
Prob (declaring all doses toxic) 0.25 0.15 0.19 0.52 0.34 0.45
Proportion of trials that treat ≥ k patients at estimated MTD k = 10 0.52 0.40 0.54 0.37 0.25 0.33
k = 15 0.52 0.40 0.27 0.37 0.25 0.14
Proportion of trials that select the true MTD and treat
k patients at true MTD k = 10 0.21 0.16 0.22 0.22 0.13 0.10
k = 15 0.21 0.16 0.11 0.22 0.13 0.03

* Included are the proportion of trials declaring all doses too toxic, the proportion treating at least 10 or 15 patients at the estimated MTD, and the proportion treating at least 10 or 15 patients at the true MTD. 3+3+DEC = `3+3’ trial followed by dose-expansion cohort; CRMS+DEC = small continual reassessment method trial followed by dose-expansion cohort; CRML = large continual reassessment method trial; DTC = dose-toxicity curve; MTD = maximum tolerated dose