Table 4. Expanding the total organ donor population.
Strategy/Assumption | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Donors | Transplants | Donors | Transplants | Donors | Transplants | Donors | Transplants | Donors | Transplants | ||
Static Donor population Growth | 1% annual growth | 6,500 | 5064 | 6,832 | 4789 | 7,180 | 4423 | 7,546 | 4241 | 7,931 | 3458 |
2% annual growth | 6,500 | 5064 | 7,177 | 5031 | 7,923 | 4881 | 8,748 | 4916 | 9,659 | 4211 | |
3% annual growth | 6,500 | 5064 | 7,535 | 5282 | 8,735 | 5381 | 10,127 | 5691 | 11,740 | 5119 | |
4% annual growth | 6,500 | 5064 | 7,908 | 5543 | 9,622 | 5927 | 11,706 | 6579 | 14,242 | 6210 | |
Donor population linked to Census | Census projection | 6,500 | 5064 | 6,756 | 4736 | 7,019 | 4324 | 7,282 | 4092 | 7,536 | 3286 |
International opt out donation strategy estimations | Abadie et al(30) | 6,500 | 5064 | 6,516 | 4568 | 7,272 | 4480 | 8,450 | 4749 | 8,450 | 3684 |
Neto et al(33) | 6,500 | 5064 | 6,511 | 4564 | 7,040 | 4337 | 7,865 | 4420 | 7,865 | 3429 | |
Healy et al(32) | 6,500 | 5064 | 6,507 | 4561 | 6,830 | 4207 | 7,334 | 4122 | 7,334 | 3198 | |
Gimbel et al(31) | 6,500 | 5064 | 6,515 | 4567 | 7,250 | 4466 | 8,396 | 4719 | 8,396 | 3661 | |
Universal opt out strategy | 90% of eligible population donate | 6,500 | 5064 | 6,547 | 4589 | 8,815 | 5430 | 12,350 | 6941 | 12,350 | 5385 |
Table 4 summarizes the total number of organ donors who successfully donate at least one organ pending changes in various donation strategies.
Total liver transplants performed calculated based on utilization rates from baseline assumptions in scenario 1.
In order to keep pace with the current number of liver transplants performed, there needs to be approximately 3% per year growth in the donor population or a universal opt in organ donor strategy