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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2016 Aug 1.
Published in final edited form as: Liver Transpl. 2015 Aug;21(8):1040–1050. doi: 10.1002/lt.24160

Table 4. Expanding the total organ donor population.

Strategy/Assumption 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Donors Transplants Donors Transplants Donors Transplants Donors Transplants Donors Transplants
Static Donor population Growth 1% annual growth 6,500 5064 6,832 4789 7,180 4423 7,546 4241 7,931 3458
2% annual growth 6,500 5064 7,177 5031 7,923 4881 8,748 4916 9,659 4211
3% annual growth 6,500 5064 7,535 5282 8,735 5381 10,127 5691 11,740 5119
4% annual growth 6,500 5064 7,908 5543 9,622 5927 11,706 6579 14,242 6210
Donor population linked to Census Census projection 6,500 5064 6,756 4736 7,019 4324 7,282 4092 7,536 3286
International opt out donation strategy estimations Abadie et al(30) 6,500 5064 6,516 4568 7,272 4480 8,450 4749 8,450 3684
Neto et al(33) 6,500 5064 6,511 4564 7,040 4337 7,865 4420 7,865 3429
Healy et al(32) 6,500 5064 6,507 4561 6,830 4207 7,334 4122 7,334 3198
Gimbel et al(31) 6,500 5064 6,515 4567 7,250 4466 8,396 4719 8,396 3661
Universal opt out strategy 90% of eligible population donate 6,500 5064 6,547 4589 8,815 5430 12,350 6941 12,350 5385

Table 4 summarizes the total number of organ donors who successfully donate at least one organ pending changes in various donation strategies.

Total liver transplants performed calculated based on utilization rates from baseline assumptions in scenario 1.

In order to keep pace with the current number of liver transplants performed, there needs to be approximately 3% per year growth in the donor population or a universal opt in organ donor strategy