Figure 2. Mean three yearly reproductive rates (a) across the lifespan and (b) in the senescent phase in female Asian elephants by high stress birth season.

In (a) The raw age-specific means (points) suggest an initial increase, followed by a peak at 24 and subsequent decline (also found in model1524, Table S3). The points show the mean probability of reproduction for all individuals by birth season in the raw data (6,483 records from 1,078 female elephants) and the shaded areas show the standard errors around these points. In (b) Mean three yearly probability of reproduction in female Asian elephants aged over 24 by ‘high stress’ birth season (2,059 data points from 455 females). The lines show predictions from the best fitting model (Table 1) fitted to individuals aged over 24, the shaded areas are SE values from the same model. The points show the mean probability of reproduction for each 3-year interval in the raw data by ‘high stress’ birth season.