Figure 1. Calibrated posterior predictions of the P. falciparum prevalence–incidence relationship under conditions of low historical treatment and low transmission seasonality from the three microsimulation models comprising our ensemble, stratified by age.

(a,d,g) OpenMalaria; (b,e,h) EMOD DTK; (c,f,i) Griffin IS. In each panel the coloured curve and shaded zones illustrate the (pointwise) median and surrounding 68 and 95% credible intervals for incidence detectable with daily ACD supposing no change to treatment, while the dashed black lines illustrate the median prediction corresponding to a study year intervention increasing the effective treatment rate from 35 to 85% (that is, the ‘observer effect' of ethical study designs).