Figure 2. Ensemble model predictions of the P. falciparum prevalence–incidence relationship, stratified by age.

Predictions are given under conditions of low historical treatment and low transmission seasonality (a,d,g), high seasonality (b,e,h) and low seasonality after a 90% decline in EIR over the past 5 years (c,f,i). In each panel the coloured curve and shaded zones illustrate the (pointwise) median and surrounding 68 and 95% credible intervals for incidence detectable with daily ACD. These ensemble predictions represent a weighted average of the calibrated posteriors from each transmission model with weights assigned by the median of subset posteriors algorithm.