Figure 3. Ensemble model predictions of changes to clinical incidence resulting from a 90% reduction in EIR over the past 5 years, as a function of starting prevalence.

In each panel the coloured curve and shaded zones illustrate the (pointwise) median and surrounding 68 and 95% credible intervals for the change in incidence detectable with daily ACD. Predictions are given for low (a) and high (b) seasonality settings.