Table 2.

Model parameters and sensitivity analyses for the expected number of HIV infections in the absence of the intervention among female sex workers in Ouagadougou

	Expected number of HIV infections during follow-up
	Lower limit of the 95% CI	Median limit of the 95% CI	Upper limit of the 95% CI
Parameters from the literature
HIV prevalence among clients of FSW [35]	0.0134	0.032	0.0546
Per-act transmission risk [30]	0.0013	0.0038	0.011
Score GUD [26]	1.3	2.58	5.69
Score HSV-2 infection [26]	1.7	3.1	5.6
Score HIV stage [26]
Chronic stage	1
Primary stage	2.00	4.98	12.39
Late stage	1.76	3.49	6.92
Score for detectable viral load [26]
Undetectable	0.06	0.14	0.34
Detectable	0.51	1.72	5.75
Estimations
Number of unprotected vaginal sexual acts during follow up with HIV-positive men at:
Primary stage and not taking ART (N1)	4	10	16
Chronic stage and not taking ART (N 2)	126	295	453
Chronic stage and taking ART (N3)	27	70	171
Late stage and not taking ART (N4)	3	8	12
Late stage and taking ART (N5)	1	2	6
Number of expected infections during follow-up among FSW n (95% CI)	0.14 (0.14–0.15)	5.05 (5.01–5.08)	42.51 (42.28–42.74)
pa	0.86	0.005	<0.001

^aWhen compared with the 0 observed HIV infection the follow-up.