Table 2.
Assumed distribution of wild poliovirus serotype 1 R0 values for the different income level and current polio vaccine use strata, as used in the global model, and assumed simplified burn-in period [23]a
Income level (as of 2013) | Polio vaccine(s) used (as of 2013) | Population size in billions (as of 2013) | Years until OPV use startsb | Year until IPV-only or IPV/OPV startsb | Number of assigned blocks | Number of blocks assigned to each R0 (for WPV1) | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | ||||||
Low | OPV-only | 0.86 | 33 | N/A | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Lower middle | OPV-only | 2.48 | 33 | N/A | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 2 |
Upper middle | OPV-only | 1.87 | 20 | N/A | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Upper middle | IPV/OPV | 0.50 | 20 | 58 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
High | IPV/OPV | 0.23 | 10 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
High | IPV-only | 1.02 | 10 | 50 | 10c | 2 | 7.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
aDoes not include countries with unspecified income level totaling approximately 23 million people and two high-income countries that still use OPV-only totaling approximately 34 million people (all as of 2013); Assigns 67 million people in IPV/OPV-using lower middle-income countries to IPV/OPV-using upper middle-income blocks, 74 million people in IPV-only using upper middle-income countries to IPV-only-using high-income blocks, and 23 million people in OPV-only-using high-income countries to OPV-using lower or upper middle-income blocks
bYears relative to beginning of burn-in period 65 years ago (i.e., 1950)
cIncludes some blocks with subpopulations assigned to different R0 values