Table 2.
Number of SNPs needed to achieve an AUC of 0.75–0.95 assuming a low-penetrance polygenic distribution. Numbers in each cell are the mean (range) of 100 iterations. A) Using a SNP-only model B) Adding SNPs to an existing NTCP model.
| A.
| |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence of late effects | AUC | ||||
| 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 0.95 | |
| 30% | 71 (60,80) | 118 (100,226) | 214 (196,228) | 397 (382,418) | 977 (928,1012) |
|
|
|||||
| 5% | 59 (52,64) | 98 (92,104) | 159 (150,168) | 269 (248,282) | 557 (520,580) |
| B.
| ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence of late effects | NTCP model AUC | NTCP + SNP model AUC | ||||
| 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 0.95 | ||
| 30% | 0.70 | 28 (22,36) | 78 (72, 86) | 171 (152, 180) | 357 (325, 385) | 928 (905, 970) |
| 0.75 | 49 (40,62) | 145 (125, 164) | 335 (310, 348) | 868 (835, 900) | ||
| 0.80 | 75 (60, 90) | 272 (256, 296) | 821 (800, 855) | |||
|
| ||||||
| 5% | 0.70 | 24 (19, 28) | 61 (52, 72) | 118 (108, 126) | 233 (224, 250) | 529 (505–549) |
| 0.75 | 36 (29, 43) | 96 (82, 106) | 211 (200, 224) | 501 (475, 525) | ||
| 0.80 | 53 (45, 61) | 170 (165, 179) | 460 (438, 478) | |||