Table 3.
Number of SNPs needed to achieve the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75–0.95 assuming a moderate-penetrance polygenic distribution. Each set of simulations was modeled for rarer forms of toxicity that occur at 5% incidence and more common types of radiation injury that occur at 30% incidence. Numbers in each cell are the mean (range) of 100 iterations. A) Using a SNP-only model B) Adding SNPs to an NTCP model that contains dosimetric risk variables.
| A.
| |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence of late effects | AUC | ||||
| 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 0.95 | |
| 30% | 41 (34,46) | 72 (67,77) | 124 (115,135) | 243 (240,252) | 566 (550,586) |
|
|
|||||
| 5% | 34 (26,36) | 53 (46,58) | 88 (78,96) | 152 (145,163) | 307 (284,326) |
| B.
| ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence of late effects | NTCP model AUC | NTCP + SNP model AUC | ||||
| 0.75 | 0.80 | 0.85 | 0.90 | 0.95 | ||
| 30% | 0.70 | 17 (12, 20) | 47 (42, 51) | 100 (92, 112) | 207 (190, 230) | 539 (500, 570) |
| 0.75 | 30 (24, 36) | 82 (74, 90) | 192 (180, 212) | 522 (495, 548) | ||
| 0.80 | 50 (42, 56) | 155 (144, 172) | 492 (480, 510) | |||
|
| ||||||
| 5% | 0.70 | 13 (10,15) | 34 (30, 38) | 68 (64, 72) | 131 (120, 142) | 305 (285, 325) |
| 0.75 | 19 (14, 22) | 52 (46, 59) | 118 (108, 124) | 282 (260, 300) | ||
| 0.80 | 29 (24, 34) | 92 (83, 103) | 251 (232, 269) | |||