Fig. 8.

Left: Observed life expectancy at birth (black line) as well as its retrospective forecasts of our model (blue line), of the original Lee-Carter model (red line) and of its coherent variant (green line) for women (top) and men (bottom) in Russia. We take data from 1975 to 1990 (gray square) in order to forecast mortality from 1991 to 2009. Center: Forecast errors; i.e., differences between forecasted and observed life expectancy, for each forecast year and model. Error indicates that forecasting models have been run, but have generated an error message. Right: Mean of the absolute forecast errors (MAE) over all of the forecast years for each forecast model