Table 3.
Calibration of the BCSC BBD Model in Risk Factor Subgroups
| Risk Group | 5 Years |
10 Years |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected Rate | Observed Rate | E/O Ratio (95% CI) | Expected Rate | Observed Rate | E/O Ratio (95% CI) | |
| Full cohort | 1.20 | 1.15 | 1.04 (1.02 to 1.06) | 2.57 | 2.46 | 1.05 (1.03 to 1.06) |
| Age group, years | ||||||
| 35-39 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 0.86 (0.78 to 0.95) | 1.12 | 1.24 | 0.90 (0.84 to 0.97) |
| 40-44 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.98 (0.93 to 1.03) | 1.58 | 1.61 | 0.98 (0.94 to 1.02) |
| 45-49 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.02 (0.97 to 1.06) | 2.26 | 2.08 | 1.09 (1.05 to 1.13) |
| 50-54 | 1.28 | 1.12 | 1.14 (1.09 to 1.19) | 2.78 | 2.45 | 1.13 (1.09 to 1.18) |
| 55-59 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 1.01 (0.97 to 1.06) | 3.25 | 3.20 | 1.02 (0.98 to 1.05) |
| 60-64 | 1.79 | 1.69 | 1.05 (1.00 to 1.11) | 3.61 | 3.44 | 1.05 (1.01 to 1.09) |
| 65-69 | 1.97 | 1.82 | 1.08 (1.03 to 1.14) | 3.83 | 3.53 | 1.08 (1.04 to 1.13) |
| 70-74 | 2.10 | 1.98 | 1.06 (1.00 to 1.12) | 3.89 | 3.79 | 1.03 (0.98 to 1.07) |
| Race/ethnicity | ||||||
| White, non-Hispanic | 1.28 | 1.21 | 1.06 (1.04 to 1.08) | 2.73 | 2.53 | 1.08 (1.06 to 1.10) |
| Black, non-Hispanic | 1.11 | 1.04 | 1.06 (0.99 to 1.14) | 2.35 | 2.37 | 0.99 (0.93 to 1.06) |
| Asian | 0.93 | 0.99 | 0.94 (0.85 to 1.04) | 1.96 | 2.21 | 0.88 (0.81 to 0.97) |
| Hispanic | 0.86 | 0.92 | 0.94 (0.88 to 1.00) | 1.85 | 2.05 | 0.90 (0.85 to 0.96) |
| American Indian | 0.94 | 0.75 | 1.26 (1.01 to 1.58) | 1.98 | 1.49 | 1.32 (1.07 to 1.64) |
| Other, mixed, unknown | 1.17 | 0.99 | 1.18 (0.99 to 1.40) | 2.54 | 2.18 | 1.16 (1.01 to 1.34) |
| BI-RADS breast density | ||||||
| a: Almost entirely fat | 0.71 | 0.64 | 1.11 (1.02 to 1.21) | 1.45 | 1.44 | 1.01 (0.94 to 1.08) |
| b: Scattered fibroglandular densities | 1.09 | 1.03 | 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08) | 2.28 | 2.17 | 1.05 (1.03 to 1.08) |
| c: Heterogeneously dense | 1.38 | 1.32 | 1.04 (1.01 to 1.07) | 2.96 | 2.85 | 1.04 (1.02 to 1.07) |
| d: Extremely dense | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.00 (0.95 to 1.05) | 3.15 | 2.97 | 1.06 (1.01 to 1.11) |
| Family history of breast cancer | ||||||
| 0 | 1.11 | 1.06 | 1.04 (1.02 to 1.06) | 2.36 | 2.27 | 1.04 (1.03 to 1.06) |
| 1+ | 1.89 | 1.82 | 1.04 (1.00 to 1.08) | 4.02 | 3.75 | 1.07 (1.04 to 1.11) |
| Benign breast disease | ||||||
| None (no prior biopsy) | 1.00 | 0.96 | 1.04 (1.02 to 1.07) | 2.16 | 2.12 | 1.02 (1.00 to 1.04) |
| Prior biopsy, unknown diagnosis | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.03 (0.99 to 1.06) | 3.97 | 3.67 | 1.08 (1.05 to 1.11) |
| Nonproliferative | 1.71 | 1.69 | 1.01 (0.93 to 1.10) | 3.62 | 3.35 | 1.08 (1.00 to 1.17) |
| Proliferative without atypia | 2.19 | 2.08 | 1.05 (0.93 to 1.19) | 4.61 | 4.36 | 1.06 (0.95 to 1.18) |
| Proliferative with atypia | 3.79 | 3.30 | 1.15 (0.91 to 1.45) | 7.87 | 7.11 | 1.11 (0.91 to 1.34) |
| LCIS | 5.90 | 4.80 | 1.23 (0.87 to 1.74) | 11.94 | 13.46 | 0.89 (0.65 to 1.21) |
NOTE. The observed rate uses the Kaplan-Meier estimator to calculate the number of cancers observed in each subgroup (total cohort, N = 1,135,977). The expected rate is the average of the BCSC BBD model predicted risk for each woman in the subcohort. No additional adjustments were performed.
Abbreviations: BBD, benign breast disease; BCSC, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium; BI-RADS, Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System; E/O, expected rate divided by the observed rate; LCIS, lobular carcinoma in situ.