Table 4.
Negative binomial regression testing the relationship between Islamist insurgency and polio (3 year mean), 2003–2014
| 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003–5 | 2004–6 | 2005–7 | 2006–8 | 2007–9 | 2008–10 | 2009–11 | 2010–12 | 2011–13 | 2012–14 | |
| Islamist insurgency | .194* (.136) | .218 (.197) | .305 (.226) | 1.596 (1.130) | 1.156 (.586) | .335 (.271) | .183 (.203) | 49.313*** (50.731) | 10.359** (8.454) | 27.889*** (17.521) |
| Non-Islamist insurgency | .601 (635) | 1.291 (1.429) | .392 (.289) | 2.867* (1.114) | 4.895* (3.073) | .436 (.440) | .430 (.512) | 2.634 (1.522) | 1.058 (.732) | .659 (.754) |
| GDP per capita (000) | .856 (.150) | .949 (.039) | .918 (.049) | .990 (.026) | .311** (.121) | .927* (.061) | .807 (.106) | .878 (.062) | .730* (.113) | .582* (.112) |
| Total population (log) | 4.730*** (2.001) | 3.229* (1.544) | 4.066*** (1.619) | 1.733 (.594) | 2.478*** (.619) | 1.936** (.402) | 1.486* (.265) | 2.065** (.446) | 2.227* (.686) | 2.589*** (.693) |
| Infant mortality (per 1000) | 1.057*** (.016) | 1.049** (.017) | 1.043* (.019) | 1.036* (.015) | 1.059*** (.013) | 1.042*** (.008) | 1.072*** (.019) | 1.103*** (.024) | 1.044** (.017) | 1.026§ (.025) |
| Rural population % | 1.052 (.030) | 1.058* (.028) | 1.061* (.030) | 1.034** (.011) | .975 (.021) | 1.055 (.031) | .990 (.028) | .938* (.159) | .960 (.021) | .969 (.025) |
| Polio cases in previous year (log) | .885 (.296) | 1.025 (.234) | 1.036 (.183) | 2.100*** (.381) | 1.332 (.211) | 1.417* (.246) | 1.450 (.373) | .743* (.159) | 2.116*** (.387) | 1.417 (.282) |
| Observations | 182 | 182 | 182 | 182 | 182 | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 | 183 |
We report incidence rate ratios. Standard errors are in parentheses. Constants are calculated but not reported
* p < .05 (5 %), ** p < .01 (1 %), *** p < .001 (0.1 %), § p = .05 (5 %)