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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2015 Oct 1.

Published in final edited form as: J Theor Biol. 2014 Apr 13;355:170–184. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.02.042

A For each of the three regimes in Figure 5, we show: the distribution of time to local recurrence $\hat{P} (T_{R}^{f} \in d τ)$ , and the distribution of time to distant recurrence $\hat{P} ({\tilde{T}}_{R}^{p} \in d τ)$ . The distribution of $T_{R}^{f}$ is given in Corollary 4.1 and we set ${\tilde{T}}_{R}^{p} = min {T_{R}^{p}, σ_{2}}$ to account both for contributions from type-1 clones already existing at σ₂ as well as contributions from type-1 clones born after σ₂ (for which time to recurrence is distributed as σ₂). Expected times to recurrence: $\hat{E} (T_{R}^{f}) = 81$ and $\hat{E} ({\tilde{T}}_{R}^{p}) = 733$ (Regime 1); $\hat{E} (T_{R}^{f}) = 98$ and $\hat{E} ({\tilde{T}}_{R}^{p}) = 86$ (Regime 2); $\hat{E} (T_{R}^{f}) = 149$ and $\hat{E} ({\tilde{T}}_{R}^{p}) = 34$ (Regime 3). The parameter values are as in Figure 5.