Table 1.

Summary of the fundamental (i.e. not derived) numerical parameters in our analysis, together with estimated values. Note that in [4] the probability of an outbreak was denoted r rather than a. Here, we use r for the relative risk, as in [5]. The proportion of the population infected initially by a bioterrorist attack or accidental release, α, corresponds to infection of 5000 individuals in a population of 290 million (after [4]).

quantity	interpretation	value	source
rv	mortality risk from vaccination (probability)	10−6	[4]
ri	mortality risk from infection (probability)	0.3	[4]
ℛ0	basic reproductive ratio	5	[6–8]
tser	mean serial interval	22 days	[9, p. 141]
1/σ	mean latent period (SEIRV)	15 days	[1, p. 188] and [4]
	vaccination effort parameter (exact interpretation depends on model)	see table 4
tlag	response lag before initiation of post-outbreak vaccination	0 days, except in §7.5
a	probability of attack or accidental release per lifetime	0.01	[4]
α	proportion of susceptibles initially infected in an outbreak	5000/290 × 106 ≃ 1.72 × 10−5	[4]