Table 2.

Hazard ratios (95 % confidence intervals) of incident type 2 diabetes according to the dose of leisure-time moderate- and vigorous-intensity exercise

	Inactive	Low dose	Physical activity meeting recommendation		P for trenda
			Medium dose	High dose
Medium exercise dose	0	3.7	10.5	23.0
No. of subjects	17,437	4,331	2,831	2,029
No. of cases	1,210	257	166	137
Person-years	91,266	23,080	13,278	12,116
Cases/ 10,000 person-years	133	111	125	113
Model 1b	1.00 (reference)	0.83 (0.73, 0.95)	0.89 (0.76, 1.05)	0.78 (0.65, 0.93)	0.003
Model 2c	1.00 (reference)	0.89 (0.78, 1.02)	0.95 (0.80, 1.11)	0.85 (0.71, 1.01)	0.06
Model 3d	1.00 (reference)	0.87 (0.76, 1.00)	0.92 (0.78, 1.08)	0.83 (0.69, 0.99)	0.024

^a P for the trend was calculated using Cox proportional hazard regression, and ordinal numbers 0, 4, 11, and 23 were assigned to increasing levels of leisure-time physical activity, which was treated as continuous variable

^bAdjusted for age (years, continuous) and sex

^cAdjusted for age (years, continuous), sex, shift work (yes or no), sleep duration (<5, <6, 6 to <7, or ≥7 h per day), alcohol consumption (non-drinker, current drinker consuming <1, 1 to <2, or ≥2 go of Japanese sake equivalent per day [1 go of Japanese sake contains approximately 23 g of ethanol]), smoking (never, past, current smoker consuming 1 to 20 or ≥21 cigarettes per day), hypertension (yes or no), a family history of diabetes (yes or no), occupational activity (mostly sedentary, mostly standing, walking often, or fairly active), and walking for commuting to and from work (<20, 20 to <40, or ≥40 min of walking)

^dAdjusted for factors in model 2 plus body mass index (kg/m², continuous)