Table 1.

Transition probabilities between Markov health states (see figure 1)

Transition	Description	Source	Age group (%)
			60–64	65–69	70–74	≥75
A	Probability of minor fall	Scuffham	2.4	2.4	2.8	5.8
B	Probability of major fall	Scuffham	0.3	0.5	0.9	3.7
C	Probability of long-term care following major fall	Scuffham	0.0	0.0	8.6	27.4
D	Probability of death following major fall	Scuffham	0.2	0.4	0.7	1.0
E	Recovery following minor fall	Assumption	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
F	Recovery following major fall	1-C-D	99.8	99.6	90.7	71.7
G	Probability of death while in care	Bebbington*	–	–	20.6	20.6
H	Probability of death from independent living	ONS	0.6	0.6	1.6	7.5
I	Probability of return to independent living	Bebbington†	–	–	3.8	3.8

*Conservatively estimated as that applicable to residential care.

†93/2450 older adults admitted to institutional care observed over 42 months. As the survival distribution of ‘returners’ is unknown the model conservatively estimates that they occur in the first year only following a major fall.