Table 1.

Summary of parameter estimates.

notation	description	value—mean (first, 99th percentile)
C (comm,g)	number of commercial domestic chickens per cell	6293 (0, 16883)
C (back,g)	number of backyard domestic chickens per cell	1654 (0, 6331)
w (comm)	contact ratio between commercial chickens and people	5.2×10−4 (4.8×10−5, 9.8×10−4)
w (back)	contact ratio between backyard chickens and people	0.51 (0.03, 0.99)
$\tilde{\beta }\hspace{0.17em}(\mathrm{comm})$	transmission parameter: commercial chickens $\to$ humans	2.03×10−7 (1.16×10−9, 1.32×10−6)
$\tilde{\beta }\hspace{0.17em}(\mathrm{back})$	transmission parameter: backyard chickens $\to$ humans	1.63×10−6 (6.05×10−8, 5.62×10−6)
$\hat{n}\hspace{0.17em}(i,g,t)$	normalized density estimator	see electronic supplementary material
U (active)	under-reporting factor for active surveillance of HPAI and LPAI	8.2 (1.0, 99.7)
U (passive)	under-reporting factor for passive surveillance of HPAI	286.1 (1.0, 1000.0)
U (both)	under-reporting factor for both active and passive surveillance of HPAI and LPAI	7.7 (1.0, 108.4)