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. 2015 Sep 18;112(38):367–344. doi: 10.3238/arztebl.2015.0637

Table 1. Results of the National Lung Screening Trial (1).

Low dose CT Conventional chest radiography Relative effect size 95% CI
N % N %
Participants 26722 26732
Compliance 95.0 93.0
Screening examinations 75126 73470
Positive results 18146 24.2 5043 6.9
  • False positive

17 497 96.4 4764 94.5
  • True positive

649 3.6 279 5.5
Conspicuous result without suspicion of malignancy 5622 7.5 1575 2.1
At least one positive result (proportion of participants) 39.1 16.0
Lung cancer diagnosed 1060 941
  • After positive result

649 279
  • After negative result

44 137
  • After end of study or no screening performed*1

367 525
Program sensitivity*2 94.1 67.9
Incidence of lung cancer (per 100000 person years) 645 572 1.13 1.03–1.23
Deaths (from any cause) 1877 2000
Relative reduction in overall mortality (%) 6.7 1.2–13.6
Unknown cause of death 12 9
Known cause of death 1865 1991
  • Lung cancer, incl. DCO

427 22.9 503 25.3
  • Other neoplasms

416 22.3 442 22.2
  • Cardiovascular diseases

486 26.1 470 23.6
  • Diseases of the respiratory tract

175 9.4 226 11.4
  • Treatment complications

12 0.6 7 0.4
  • Others

349 18.7 343 17.2
Lung cancer deaths, without DCO 356 443
Lung cancer mortality (per 100000), without DCO 247 309 0.80 0.73–0.93
Relative risk reduction (%) 20.0 6.8–26.7
Participants with at least one screening 26455 26232
  • Lung cancer deaths (without DCO)

346 1.3 425 1.6
Number needed to screen 320
Number needed to harm*3
  • Major complication

307–453
  • Intermediate complication

192–281
  • Minor complication

1406–2671
  • At least one complication

109–163
  • Death within 60 days of highly invasive procedure

1272–3815

*1Altogether there were 3875 death certificates, 1877 in the low dose CT group and 1998 in the conventional radiography group; the cause of death was unknown in 12 and 7 persons respectively; the denominators for the percentages of causes of death relate to all deaths for which the cause was known, i.e., 1865 and 1991 deaths respectively; overall (low dose CT and conventional radiography) lung cancer was diagnosed 892 times, n=35 in participants who were not screened at all, n=802 in screened participants but after the end of the screening phase, and n=55 in persons who were The program scheduled for but had not yet undergone screening

*2sensitivity for the first 3 years was calculated from the data of Patz et al. See (9).

*3 eBox 3

CT, computed tomography; N, number; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; DCO, death certificate only (deaths for which the death certificate is the only source of information); for definitions of major, intermediate, and minor complications, see eBox 2