. 2015 Sep 8;6(5):e01280-15. doi: 10.1128/mBio.01280-15

TABLE 2 .

Estimated times in years to most recent common ancestor of the 2015 cluster

Molecular clock model	Value for indicated coalescent model [mean (95% CI)]
Molecular clock model	Constant size	Exponential growth	Logistic growth	GMRF Bayesian skyride^a
Strict clock	0.6594 (0.4259, 0.9137)	0.6046 (0.371, 0.8562)	0.6621 (0.4167, 0.9201)	0.6007 (0.3611, 0.8396)
Exponential relaxed clock	0.6008 (0.3586, 0.8944)	0.5208 (0.3339, 0.7868)	0.6037 (0.3578, 0.9059)	0.5199 (0.3141, 0.8026)
Lognormal relaxed clock	0.6394 (0.4049, 0.9247)	0.582 (0.3684, 0.8437)	0.641 (0.4085, 0.9167)	0.5711 (0.3351, 0.8264)

^{^a}

GMRF, Gauss Markov random fields.