Table 3.

Generalized linear mixed models of unemployment predicting heavy episodic drinking, cigarette smoking, and cannabis use for 6 or more months in a given year, respectively

	Heavy drinking			Smoking			Cannabis
	Coeff (SE)			Coeff (SE)			Coeff (SE)
	Odds Ratio [95% CI]			Odds Ratio [95% CI]			Odds Ratio [95% CI]
Variables	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6	M7	M8	M9
Age	−0.12***(.0 01)	−0.12***(0.01)	−0.12***(0.01)	−0.08***(0.01)	−0.07*** (0.02)	−0.07***(0.02)	−0.13***(0.01)	−0.15*** (0.02)	−0.16***(0.02)
	0.89[.87,.92]	0.89[.86,.91]	0.89[.86,.91]	0.93[.90,.95]	0.93[.90,.96]	0.93[.91,.96]	0.88[.86,.91]	0.86[.83,.89]	0.85[.82,.88]
Unemployment (a time-varying predictor)	0.04**(0.02)	0.04**(0.02)	−0.01(0.02)	−0.02(0.02)	−0.04* (0.02)	−0.07***(0.03)	−0.01(0.02)	−0.01 (0.02)	−0.04(0.03)
	1.04[1.00,1.08]	1.04[1.01,1.09]	0.99[.95,1.04]	0.98[.95,1.02]	0.96[.92,1.00]	0.93[.88,.98]	0.99[.96,1.03]	0.99[.95,1.03]	0.96[.91,1.01]
Baseline substance use, ages 13–14		0.39**(0.18)	0.28(0.19)		1.82*** (0.52)	0.96***(0.37)		0.83*** (0.25)	0.77***(0.26)
		1.47[1.03,2.10]	1.33[.92,1.91]		6.19[2.23,17.19]	2.62[1.27,5.43]		2.29[1.41,3.72]	2.16[1.30,3.59]
Baseline symptoms of psychopathology, ages 10–12
Internalizing problems		−0.45 (0.34)	−0.45(0.33)		0.95* (0.53)	0.61(0.46)		−0.89* (0.46)	−0.92*(0.52)
		0.64[.33,1.24]	0.64[.33,1.23]		2.60[.91,7.38]	1.85[.74,4.58]		0.41[.17,1.02]	0.40[.15,1.10]
Externalizing problems		0.90*** (0.27)	0.37(0.29)		1.78*** (0.55)	1.27***(0.49)		1.62*** (0.35)	0.70*(0.39)
		2.46[1.46,4.16]	1.45[.82,2.57]		5.94[2.01,17.55]	3.56[1.37,9.27]		5.06[2.53,10.12]	2.02[.94,4.36]
Childhood low SES			−0.46(0.42)			−0.61(0.62)			−0.75(0.57)
			0.63[.28,1.45]			0.55[.16,1.83]			0.47[.16,1.44]
Unemployment × childhood SES			0.17***(0.05)			0.19***(0.05)			0.13**(0.55)
			1.19[1.08,1.31]			1.21[1.09,1.34]			1.14[1.02,1.27]
Gender (Male =1)			3.14***(0.33)			0.60(0.44)			2.67***(0.41)
			23.08[12.12,43.95]			1.83[.77,4.33]			14.50[6.50,32.31]
Ethnic minority group
African American			−0.88**(0.38)			−1.46**(0.58)			0.68(0.49)
			0.42[.20,.88]			0.23[.07,.72]			1.98[.76,5.15]
Asian American			−1.28***(0.42)			−0.60(0.58)			−2.26***(0.60)
			0.28[.12,.63]			0.55[.18,1.70]			0.11[.03,.34]
Native American			1.39**(0.60)			1.44(1.10)			1.41*(0.84)
			4.00[1.24,12.94]			4.20[.49,36.20]			4.09[.79,21.22]
Educational attainment, age 21
High school graduation (Yes=1)			−0.59(0.39)			−5.92***(0.81)			−0.26(0.53)
			0.55[.26,1.18]			0.00[.00,.01]			0.77[.27,2.16]

Note:

^***p < 0.01,

^**p < 0.05,

^*p < 0.1