Table 2.

MESA 10 Year CHD Risk Prediction Models

		Risk Factors Only			Risk Factors and CAC
Variable		Hazards Ratio	Beta Coefficient	p-value	Hazards Ratio	Beta Coefficient	p-value
Age (yrs)		1.05	0.0455	<0.0001	1.02	0.0172	.007
Male		2.12	0.7496	<0.0001	1.50	0.4079	<0.001
Race/Ethnicity:
Non-Hispanic White		ref	0	--	ref	0	--
Chinese American		0.60	−0.5055	<0.01	0.71	−0.3475	0.07
African-American		0.81	−0.2111	0.066	1.04	0.0353	0.70
Hispanic		0.83	−0.1900	0.11	0.98	−0.0222	0.88
Diabetes		1.68	0.5168	<0.0001	1.48	0.3892	0.002
Current smoker		1.61	0.4732	<0.001	1.45	0.3717	0.005
Total cholesterol		1.01	0.0053	<0.0001	1.00	0.0043	<0.001
(mg/dl)		0.99	−0.0140	<0.001	0.99	−0.0114	0.003
HDL cholesterol		1.28	0.2473	0.003	1.13	0.1206	0.32
(mg/dl)
Lipid lowering meds
Systolic BP (mmHg)		1.01	0.0085	0.0002	1.01	0.0066	0.004
Anti-hypertensive meds		1.40	0.3381	0.0013	1.26	0.2278	0.033
Family hx of heart attack		1.57	0.4522	<0.0001	1.38	0.3239	<0.001
ln (CAC+1)		NA	NA	NA	1.32	0.2743	<0.0001
Baseline Survival at 10 Years, S(10)		0.99963			0.99833

P-values are based on a standard Cox proportional hazards model. To estimate the 10 year risk of a CHD event for a particular person, multiply the values of the risk factors by the corresponding beta coefficient and sum these quantities up to yield a value (call it A following the notation in Wilson et al [Wilson]). Then calculate B=exp(A). Finally the 10-year risk is given by 1-S(10)^B. Alternatively see the online calculator at http://www.mesa-nhlbi.org/.