Table 1.
Current published scoring systems predicting POPF following PD
| Author and year of publication (Time period of data collection) | Patients in modelling cohort | Outcome of interest | Proportion of modelling cohort developing outcome (%) | Proposed score scale | Predicative accuracy | Internal validation – predictive accuracy (N) | External validation – predictive accuracy (N) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaujoux et al.25 2004–2005 | 100 | ISGPF grade A–C and B–C | 31 (31) A–C 27 (27) B–C | 0–3 | AUC 0.78 (A–C) AUC 0.81 (B–C) | Not done | Not done |
| Wellner et al.17 2006–2008 | 62 | ISGPF grade A–C | 19 (31) | −3 to 2 | SR correlation coefficient = 0.47 | SR correlation coefficient = 0.35 (279) | Not done |
| Yamamoto et al.18 2004–2009 | 279 | ISGPF grade B–C | 103 (37) | 0–7 | AUC 0.810 | AUC 0.808 (108) | Not done |
| Callery et al.22 2002–2007 | 233 | ISGPF grade A–C | 58 (24.7) A–C | 0–10 | Not stated | AUC 0.942 (212) | AUC 0.716 (594) AUC 0.763 (265) |
| Graham et al.26 2007–2012 | 146 | Drain amylase >3× normal serum amylase on or after POD 4 | 50 (34) | Continuous 0–100% | 72% sensitivity 81.3% specificity | Not done | Not done |
| Roberts et al.20 2007–2012 | 217 | ISGPF grade A–C | 48 (22.1) | Continuous 0–100% | AUC 0.832 | AUC 0.751 (108) | Score predictive (P < 0.001) (630) |
SR, Spearman rank; AUC, area under curve.