Table 1.

Predictive performance of different methods: Mean absolute errors (MAE) and prediction interval coverage for our Bayesian hierarchical model, the gravity model, and the persistence models

Validation Time Period	Model	MAE	80 % Cov. (%)	95 % Cov. (%)
5 Years	Bayesian	3.24	91.4	96.4
	Gravity	4.70	—	—
	Persistence (of rates)	3.57	—	—
	Persistence (of counts)	3.58	—	—
15 Years	Bayesian	4.76	84.9	93.4
	Gravity	6.57	—	—
	Persistence (of rates)	6.74	—	—
	Persistence (of counts)	6.30	—	—
30 Years	Bayesian	5.12	77.2	89.3
	Gravity	12.32	—	—
	Persistence (of rates)	7.17	—	—
	Persistence (of counts)	5.82	—	—