Table 3.

Sensitivity Analysis Illustrating the Estimated Annual, Global Burden of Illness Due to Shiga Toxin–Producing Escherichia coli, Circa 2012, Under Different Modeling Assumptions

	No. cases	No. cases hemolytic uremic syndrome	No. cases end-stage renal disease	No. deaths
Results from Table 2	2,801,000	3890	270	230
Scenario
(1) Under-ascertainment multiplier in AFR D, AFR E, AMR B, EUR C, SEAR B, SEAR D, and WPR B, increased by a factor of two	4,028,000	5310	370	320
(2) Under-ascertainment multiplier in AFR D, AFR E, AMR B, EUR C, SEAR B, SEAR D, and WPR B, increased by a factor of five	7,715,000	9570	670	580
(3) Estimated incidence in EUR A (prospective cohort study) replaced with estimate from multiplier study	2,812,000	3930	280	230
(4) Unweighted averages of incidence estimates within Sub-Regions	4,192,000	5500	380	330
(5) SEAR D incidence estimate applied to WPR B Sub-Region	3,800,000	4970	350	300
(6) South Australia surveillance data on percent HUS used in lieu of United States’ data.	2,801,000	14,100	990	230
(7) Additional uncertainty for Sub-Regions with only one study, or for whom data were extrapolated from a neighbouring Sub-Region	2,834,000	3920	280	230
(8) Extrapolating from AMR B to AMR D (instead of extrapolating from AMR A)	2,749,000	3840	270	230