Table 4.
Annualized Incidence Rates and HRs of All Unique Risk Combinations for Incident AF and for Incident Stroke
| Risk Factors | Sample Size (2007) | Stroke Incidence | AF Incidence | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diagnoses (2008–10) | Annualized Rate* (%/year) | HR† | Diagnoses (2008–10) | Annualized Rate* (%/year) | HR† | ||
| Cohort with no risk factors | |||||||
| None | 409 074 | 3969 | 0.5 | Ref | 2900 | 0.4 | Ref |
| Cohorts with single risk factors | |||||||
| Age 65 to 74 | 305 984 | 10 898 | 1.6 | 3.3**** | 8840 | 1.3 | 3.7**** |
| Age 75+ | 195 120 | 13 294 | 3.3 | 6.9**** | 12 958 | 3.2 | 9.2**** |
| HTN | 168 932 | 3336 | 1.0 | 2.1**** | 3114 | 0.9 | 2.6**** |
| Diabetes | 27 025 | 525 | 1.0 | 2.0**** | 346 | 0.6 | 1.8**** |
| CAD | 4134 | 123 | 1.6 | 3.3**** | 89 | 1.1 | 3.2**** |
| CKD | 563 | 19 | 1.8 | 3.6**** | 9 | 0.8 | 2.3* |
| HF | 414 | 17 | 2.2 | 4.5**** | 13 | 1.7 | 4.7**** |
| Cohorts with 2 risk factors | |||||||
| HTN+diabetes | 490 924 | 13 036 | 1.3 | 2.8**** | 9640 | 1.0 | 2.8**** |
| HTN+age 65 to 74 | 338 402 | 17 071 | 2.3 | 4.7**** | 17 666 | 2.4 | 6.8**** |
| HTN+age 75+ | 298 560 | 28 968 | 4.7 | 9.6**** | 32 268 | 5.3 | 14.8**** |
| Diabetes+age 65 to 74 | 41 697 | 2243 | 2.4 | 5.0**** | 1600 | 1.7 | 4.9**** |
| Diabetes+age 75+ | 25 025 | 2480 | 4.8 | 9.9**** | 2138 | 4.1 | 11.6**** |
| HF+HTN | 17 427 | 682 | 2.1 | 4.4**** | 1181 | 3.8 | 10.6**** |
| HTN+CAD | 15 835 | 555 | 1.9 | 4.0**** | 594 | 2.1 | 5.8**** |
| CAD+age 65 to 74 | 11 679 | 657 | 2.7 | 5.5**** | 693 | 2.8 | 8.0**** |
| CAD+age 75+ | 10 885 | 1147 | 5.3 | 10.8**** | 1281 | 5.9 | 16.7**** |
| HF+age 75+ | 3672 | 342 | 5.9 | 12.1**** | 565 | 10.2 | 28.6**** |
| HTN+CKD | 2101 | 93 | 2.4 | 4.8**** | 63 | 1.6 | 4.5**** |
| CKD+age 75+ | 1729 | 174 | 5.4 | 11.1**** | 206 | 6.5 | 18.2**** |
| HF+diabetes | 1443 | 57 | 2.2 | 4.5**** | 62 | 2.4 | 6.8**** |
| CKD+age 65 to 74 | 1351 | 90 | 3.2 | 6.6**** | 95 | 3.4 | 9.5**** |
| HF+age 65 to 74 | 1279 | 92 | 3.7 | 7.6**** | 133 | 5.5 | 15.4**** |
| Diabetes+CAD | 1005 | 54 | 3.0 | 6.2**** | 30 | 1.6 | 4.6**** |
| Diabetes+CKD | 265 | 14 | 3.0 | 6.2**** | 12 | 2.6 | 7.2**** |
| HF+CAD | 76 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 2 | 1.5 | 4.2* |
| CAD+CKD | 35 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1.7 | 4.7 |
| HF+CKD | 14 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cohorts with 3 risk factors | |||||||
| HTN+diabetes+age 65 to 74 | 114 730 | 7711 | 3.1 | 6.4**** | 7270 | 2.9 | 8.2**** |
| HTN+diabetes+age 75+ | 79 597 | 8805 | 5.4 | 11.1**** | 9217 | 5.7 | 16.0**** |
| HTN+CAD+age 75+ | 65 200 | 7660 | 5.8 | 11.9**** | 9995 | 7.8 | 21.8**** |
| HTN+diabetes+CAD | 62 433 | 2976 | 2.6 | 5.4**** | 2779 | 2.4 | 6.9**** |
| HTN+CAD+age 65 to 74 | 61 478 | 4471 | 3.4 | 7.1**** | 5490 | 4.3 | 12.0**** |
| HTN+diabetes+CKD | 16 380 | 942 | 3.1 | 6.4**** | 733 | 2.4 | 6.8**** |
| HF+HTN+age 75+ | 16 339 | 1961 | 7.0 | 14.4**** | 3255 | 12.4 | 34.8**** |
| HTN+CKD+age 75+ | 11 641 | 1337 | 5.9 | 12.2**** | 1545 | 6.9 | 19.5**** |
| HF+HTN+diabetes | 9708 | 618 | 3.6 | 7.5**** | 787 | 4.7 | 13.1**** |
| HF+HTN+CAD | 8643 | 446 | 3.0 | 6.2**** | 782 | 5.4 | 15.1**** |
| HTN+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 7918 | 637 | 3.8 | 7.9**** | 583 | 3.5 | 9.8**** |
| HF+HTN+age 65 to 74 | 6657 | 568 | 4.3 | 8.8**** | 988 | 7.8 | 21.8**** |
| Diabetes+CAD+age 65 to 74 | 3551 | 293 | 3.9 | 8.1**** | 261 | 3.5 | 9.9**** |
| Diabetes+CAD+age 75+ | 2889 | 350 | 6.1 | 12.5**** | 411 | 7.2 | 20.3**** |
| HTN+CAD+CKD | 2675 | 170 | 3.7 | 7.7**** | 166 | 3.6 | 10.2**** |
| HF+HTN+CKD | 1367 | 115 | 5.2 | 10.7**** | 118 | 5.3 | 14.9**** |
| HF+diabetes+age 75+ | 1135 | 119 | 6.4 | 13.2**** | 176 | 9.8 | 27.5**** |
| HF+CAD+age 75+ | 1029 | 131 | 8.0 | 16.4**** | 206 | 13.4 | 37.5**** |
| Diabetes+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 830 | 82 | 4.9 | 10.1**** | 77 | 4.6 | 13.0**** |
| Diabetes+CKD+age 75+ | 792 | 102 | 6.9 | 14.2**** | 91 | 6.1 | 17.1**** |
| HF+diabetes+age 65 to 74 | 567 | 59 | 5.5 | 11.3**** | 90 | 8.8 | 24.8**** |
| HF+CAD+age 65 to 74 | 379 | 22 | 3.0 | 6.2**** | 49 | 7.1 | 20.0**** |
| HF+diabetes+CAD | 353 | 28 | 4.7 | 9.6**** | 29 | 4.7 | 13.3**** |
| CAD+CKD+age 75+ | 289 | 33 | 6.4 | 13.2**** | 41 | 8.2 | 23.2**** |
| HF+CKD+age 75+ | 233 | 31 | 10.5 | 21.7**** | 38 | 13.4 | 37.2**** |
| Diabetes+CAD+CKD | 222 | 15 | 4.1 | 8.4**** | 12 | 3.2 | 9.1**** |
| CAD+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 139 | 9 | 3.1 | 6.3**** | 15 | 5.4 | 15.1**** |
| HF+diabetes+CKD | 114 | 8 | 4.7 | 9.6**** | 15 | 8.7 | 24.3**** |
| HF+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 48 | 3 | 4.0 | 8.2*** | 4 | 5.5 | 15.3**** |
| HF+CAD+CKD | 33 | 4 | 7.4 | 15.2**** | 7 | 15.0 | 41.9**** |
| Cohorts with 4 risk factors | |||||||
| HTN+diabetes+CAD+age 65 to 74 | 31 774 | 2940 | 4.4 | 9.1**** | 3273 | 4.9 | 13.9**** |
| HTN+diabetes+CAD+age 75+ | 24 614 | 3271 | 6.7 | 13.7**** | 3871 | 8.0 | 22.6**** |
| HF+HTN+CAD+age 75+ | 11 270 | 1538 | 7.8 | 16.0**** | 2640 | 14.4 | 40.5**** |
| HF+HTN+diabetes+CAD | 7886 | 608 | 4.7 | 9.6**** | 870 | 6.8 | 19.1**** |
| HF+HTN+diabetes+age 75+ | 7243 | 1026 | 8.4 | 17.2**** | 1494 | 12.7 | 35.7**** |
| HTN+diabetes+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 7161 | 732 | 5.0 | 10.2**** | 692 | 4.7 | 13.2**** |
| HTN+diabetes+CKD+age 75+ | 6189 | 844 | 7.1 | 14.7**** | 868 | 7.4 | 20.8**** |
| HF+HTN+CAD+age 65 to 74 | 5399 | 556 | 5.2 | 10.8**** | 948 | 9.4 | 26.5**** |
| HF+HTN+diabetes+age 65 to 74 | 4801 | 523 | 5.6 | 11.5**** | 769 | 8.5 | 24.0**** |
| HTN+diabetes+CAD+CKD | 4384 | 396 | 5.3 | 10.9**** | 350 | 4.6 | 13.0**** |
| HTN+CAD+CKD+age 75+ | 4212 | 574 | 7.2 | 14.8**** | 745 | 9.6 | 27.0**** |
| HTN+CAD+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 2333 | 250 | 5.2 | 10.7**** | 287 | 6.1 | 17.1**** |
| HF+HTN+diabetes+CKD | 2304 | 212 | 5.9 | 12.1**** | 237 | 6.6 | 18.6**** |
| HF+HTN+CKD+age 75+ | 2059 | 250 | 7.9 | 16.3**** | 430 | 14.5 | 40.5**** |
| HF+HTN+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 697 | 82 | 6.7 | 13.7**** | 118 | 10.0 | 28.0**** |
| HF+HTN+CAD+CKD | 693 | 59 | 5.7 | 11.7**** | 102 | 10.5 | 29.5**** |
| HF+diabetes+CAD+age 75+ | 421 | 68 | 10.8 | 22.2**** | 84 | 13.4 | 37.4**** |
| HF+diabetes+CAD+age 65 to 74 | 260 | 31 | 6.5 | 13.4**** | 41 | 8.9 | 24.9**** |
| Diabetes+CAD+CKD+age 75+ | 188 | 29 | 7.9 | 16.3**** | 24 | 6.6 | 18.6**** |
| Diabetes+CAD+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 178 | 17 | 5.1 | 10.5**** | 24 | 7.5 | 21.1**** |
| HF+diabetes+CKD+age 75+ | 145 | 12 | 6.0 | 12.4**** | 29 | 15.3 | 42.8**** |
| HF+CAD+CKD+age 75+ | 97 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 25 | 21.5 | 60.0**** |
| HF+diabetes+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 80 | 5 | 3.9 | 8.0**** | 21 | 18.2 | 51.0**** |
| HF+diabetes+CAD+CKD | 69 | 5 | 5.2 | 10.8**** | 9 | 9.9 | 27.7**** |
| HF+CAD+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 29 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5 | 12.6 | 35.2**** |
| Cohorts with 5 risk factors | |||||||
| HF+HTN+diabetes+CAD+age 75+ | 6526 | 1000 | 8.9 | 18.4**** | 1434 | 13.4 | 37.7**** |
| HF+HTN+diabetes+CAD+age 65 to 74 | 5308 | 675 | 6.7 | 13.8**** | 995 | 10.3 | 29.0**** |
| HTN+diabetes+CAD+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 3330 | 408 | 6.2 | 12.7**** | 450 | 6.8 | 19.2**** |
| HTN+diabetes+CAD+CKD+age 75+ | 3172 | 443 | 7.4 | 15.3**** | 647 | 11.3 | 31.8**** |
| HF+HTN+diabetes+CAD+CKD | 2415 | 272 | 8.0 | 16.4**** | 314 | 9.2 | 25.7**** |
| HF+HTN+CAD+CKD+age 75+ | 2038 | 295 | 9.5 | 19.5**** | 473 | 16.3 | 45.7**** |
| HF+HTN+diabetes+CKD+age 75+ | 1875 | 278 | 9.7 | 20.0**** | 404 | 14.9 | 41.7**** |
| HF+HTN+diabetes+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 1429 | 195 | 7.9 | 16.2**** | 250 | 10.3 | 28.8**** |
| HF+HTN+CAD+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 694 | 81 | 6.8 | 14.0**** | 145 | 13.1 | 36.7**** |
| HF+diabetes+CAD+CKD+age 75+ | 90 | 14 | 10.6 | 21.9**** | 24 | 19.1 | 53.4**** |
| HF+diabetes+CAD+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 59 | 5 | 6.0 | 12.3**** | 10 | 14.2 | 39.5**** |
| Cohort with 6 risk factors | |||||||
| HF+HTN+diabetes+CAD+CKD+age 75+ | 2382 | 369 | 10.3 | 21.3**** | 510 | 15.0 | 41.9**** |
| HF+HTN+diabetes+CAD+CKD+age 65 to 74 | 2051 | 311 | 9.2 | 18.9**** | 400 | 12.1 | 34.0**** |
Each section is displayed in descending order of HR for AF or stroke. HR indicates hazard ratio; AF, atrial fibrillation; HTN, hypertension; CAD, coronary artery disease; CKD, chronic kidney disease; HF, heart failure.
Unadjusted annualized incidence rate.
HRs were calculated by using the second Cox regression model with mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive risk factor combination as a predictor and patients with none of the studied risk factors were used as the reference group.
*
P<0.05
**
P<0.01
***
P<0.001
****
P<0.0001.