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. 2015 Apr 10;60(Suppl 1):S20–S29. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciu1175

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Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US

This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.

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Figure 2. — Number of hospitalizations (top) and deaths (bottom) if the overall clinical attack rate of the influenza pandemic is 20% and the overall case fatality ratio is 0.53% (high-severity scenario); 10 million doses (left) or 30 million doses (right) of vaccine are administered each week; the vaccination program begins 16 weeks after, 8 weeks after, the same week as, 8 weeks before, and 16 weeks before the first cases of a novel influenza virus occur in the United States; and the efficacy is “H1N1pmd09 monovalent vaccine–like.” 2009 H1N1–like vaccine effectiveness: 2 doses of vaccine administered 3 weeks apart required to be fully effective (62% for persons aged <60 years and 43% for persons ≥60 years) in protecting against subclinical and clinical cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. We assumed 1 dose of vaccine to be 0% effective for all age groups.