Table 3. Monte Carlo simulation of frequency of surgery and advanced malignancy with each strategy.
| Surgery | Advanced malignancy | Strategy | |||||||||||
| I Wait & watch | II Resect if operable | III EUS + CEA + cytology | IV Integrated molecular pathology | ||||||||||
| Patients (#) | Cost ($) | QALY | Patients (#) | Cost ($) | QALY | Patients (#) | Cost ($) | QALY | Patients (#) | Cost ($) | QALY | ||
| Yes | No1 | 135 | 42 830 | 14.53 | 327 | 40 000 | 12.69 | 247 | 41 574 | 13.21 | 127 | 45 537 | 13.6 |
| No | No | 847 | 13 150 | 9.77 | 641 | 22 596 | 7.92 | 734 | 16 518 | 10.64 | 864 | 14 118 | 12.22 |
| Yes | 18 | 109 339 | 5.41 | 32 | 106 130 | 6.43 | 19 | 111 232 | 8.24 | 9 | 113 652 | 4.77 | |
| Overall | 1000 | $ 18 766 | 10.36 | 1000 | 30 876 | 9.95 | 1000 | 24 519 | 11.22 | 1000 | 18 966 | 12.3 | |
1
The model assumes that surgery prevents progression to advanced malignancy.