Figure 3.

Comparison of cases prevented in the epidemic versus endemic settings as a function of the percentage of OCV doses allocated to reactive vaccination and the expected delay in reactive vaccination. As the number of OCV doses allocated to reactive vaccination increases (lower x-axis) the per cent coverage in an endemic population of 1 million declines accordingly (upper x-axis). Positive numbers (blue) indicate more cases are prevented in the epidemic setting while negative numbers (red) indicate that more cases are prevented in the endemic setting. Scenarios assume a stockpile of 2 million doses and an epidemic population at risk of 1 million. Epidemic growth rates of (a) 0.047, (b) 0.054, (c) 0.081 and (d) 0.111 d⁻¹.