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. 2015 Nov 5;370(1681):20140280. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2014.0280

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© 2015 The Authors.

Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

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Figure 2. — Distinguishing outcomes from impacts as defined in this paper. Outcomes are the conditions in protected areas: the content, threat levels, or state of biodiversity within protected areas (p) at a point in time (e.g. condition_p₂) or at multiple points in time, which reveal temporal trends. Impacts are the differences between conditions at sites within protected areas (p) and estimates of the conditions at the same sites were protection not present (u), or the counterfactual conditions. Ideally, impacts are also estimated at multiple points in time to test for differences in trends within and outside protected areas. The reliability of impact estimates varies with study design and quantitative rigour [14].