goal |
maximize the impact of established protected areas subject to a total management budget (the steps below could be adapted to an alternative goal of strengthening established protected areas to achieve a specified amount of impact) |
data |
decide how impact will be targeted and measured (refer to table 3) |
for logistical reasons, restrict the scope of the problem to ‘high-priority’ protected areas. Identify these protected areas by estimating the contribution they make to conservation objectives ranging, in order of importance, from global to subnational and local |
counterfactuals |
for each protected area, use models for taking action to estimate the counterfactuals, that is, the distribution or abundance of selected species and/or ecosystems in the absence of protection |
upper bounds |
for each protected area, use models for taking action to estimate the distribution or abundance of selected species and/or ecosystems with fully effective protection. Then subtract the counterfactual estimates to get the upper bound of impact that could be achieved (figure 6) |
objectives |
decide on the time interval over which objectives should be achieved |
for each protected area and each selected species and/or ecosystem, considering the upper bounds on impact, specify the maximum amount of impact that should be achieved (revise as necessary, subject to below). We assume that the selected species and/or ecosystems will tend to differ between high-priority protected areas |
actions and costs |
for each protected area, use models for taking action to identify the actions needed to achieve the specified maximum amount of impact. If actions will not achieve the specified amount, revise that amount |
estimate the costs of taking the required actions, and whether the cost-effectiveness of actions is likely to diminish with higher amounts of impact achieved. If costs of actions produce diminishing returns with higher amounts of impact, consider whether the specified amount of impact should be reduced and actions partly reallocated to other protected areas. If so, revise the amount of impact to be achieved |
allocate actions to protected areas to maximize the achievement of objectives, and implement those actions |
measures |
decide on methods for tracking progress for individual species and/or ecosystems |
decide on aggregate measures of progress across protected areas and across species and/or ecosystems (refer to table 3) |