Table 2.
Sensitivity analyses of model projections to changes in the values of key parameters. The numerical values record the percentage reduction in the predicted mean intensity of infection in each age group from a rising treatment coverage to 75 %, and to 27.4 % in adults, in 2020 as compared to baseline in 2003
| Parameter | Pre-SAC mean burden | SAC mean burden | Adults mean burden | Overall population mean burden |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitted parameter values (Table 1) | 73 % | 91 % | 84 % | 86 % |
| Higher and lower transmission setting (R0 + 1.0, −0.25) | 49 %, 81 % | 78 %, 94 % | 76 %, 86 % | 76 %, 90 % |
| Coverage level achieved in 2020 (60 %, 90 %) | 77 %, 67 % | 94 %, 85 % | 87 %, 79 % | 90 %, 81 % |
| Degree of exposure and contribution of children to the infectious reservoir (5–16 years) (β2 and β2 + 50 %, −50 %) | 73 %, 71 % | 91 %, 90 % | 84 %, 82 % | 87 %, 85 % |