Table 4. Mean budbreak and flowering times under different climate conditions using two types of phenology model: (i) spring warming budbreak and flowering models [58, 60, 62], and (ii) winter chilling (vernalization) models [53].

Emissionsscenario	Time period	(i) Spring warming models		(ii) Winter chilling model
		Budbreak	Flowering	Budbreak	Flowering
Baseline	1961–1990	128	179	113	192
	2010–2039	109	170	110	181
Low	2040–2069	99	166	108	176
	2070–2099	89	163	106	172
	2010–2039	107	170	109	181
Medium	2040–2069	93	164	107	173
	2070–2099	83	159	106	168
	2010–2039	109	170	110	182
High	2040–2069	90	163	106	171
	2070–2099	76	155	106	163