Table 2.
Prognostic impact of pCR on survival (Cox proportional hazards model)
| Variables | QpCR | CpCR | CpCRbn | SpCR | SpCRbn | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | 95 % CI | HR | 95 % CI | HR | 95 % CI | HR | 95 % CI | HR | 95 % CI | |
| Disease-free survival | ||||||||||
| Study | ||||||||||
| JBCRG-02 | 2.09 | 0.95–4.25 | 1.96 | 0.89–3.98 | 1.66 | 0.76–3.33 | 1.87 | 0.84–3.83 | 1.67 | 0.77–3.34 |
| JBCRG-03 | 1.31 | 0.76–2.21 | 1.29 | 0.75–2.17 | 1.26 | 0.74–2.13 | 1.25 | 0.73–2.12 | 1.22 | 0.72–2.07 |
| Pathologic response | ||||||||||
| pCR | 0.27** | 0.11–0.56 | 0.39* | 0.16–0.85 | 0.42* | 0.15–0.99 | 0.57 | 0.21–1.34 | 0.68 | 0.20–1.80 |
| Age | 1.00 | 0.97–1.03 | 1.00 | 0.97–1.03 | 1.00 | 0.97–1.03 | 1.00 | 0.97–1.03 | 1.00 | 0.97–1.03 |
| Tumor size | ||||||||||
| >3 cm | 1.19 | 0.73–1.98 | 1.24 | 0.76–2.05 | 1.25 | 0.77–2.08 | 1.27 | 0.78–2.11 | 1.29 | 0.79–2.14 |
| Nuclear grade | ||||||||||
| Grade 3 | 1.31 | 0.66–2.55 | 1.38 | 0.70–2.66 | 1.43 | 0.73–2.75 | 1.53 | 0.79–2.92 | 1.54 | 0.80–2.94 |
| Nodal status | ||||||||||
| n+ | 2.29** | 1.40–3.81 | 2.45** | 1.49–4.08 | 2.27** | 1.36–3.87 | 2.80** | 1.71–4.62 | 2.70** | 1.64–4.53 |
| Clinical response (CR, PR) | ||||||||||
| After the first half of NAC | 0.74 | 0.44–1.27 | 0.71 | 0.42–1.21 | 0.73 | 0.43–1.24 | 0.73 | 0.43–1.23 | 0.73 | 0.44–1.25 |
| Before surgery | 0.88 | 0.48–1.50 | 0.85 | 0.48–1.52 | 0.85 | 0.48–1.53 | 0.82 | 0.47–1.47 | 0.82 | 0.47–1.48 |
| Subtype | ||||||||||
| Luminal/Her2-positive | 1.62 | 0.60–3.73 | 1.37 | 0.51–3.11 | 1.28 | 0.48–2.87 | 1.32 | 0.49–3.00 | 1.26 | 0.47–2.85 |
| Her2-positive | 1.33 | 0.48–3.11 | 1.15 | 0.42–2.68 | 1.03 | 0.38–2.37 | 0.97 | 0.35–2.25 | 0.91 | 0.33–2.11 |
| Triple negative | 3.39** | 1.82–6.19 | 3.25** | 1.73–5.96 | 2.88** | 1.56–5.18 | 2.89** | 1.55–5.29 | 2.66** | 1.45–4.77 |
| Overall survival | ||||||||||
| Study | ||||||||||
| JBCRG-02 | 2.85 | 0.92–7.81 | 2.69 | 0.87–7.38 | 1.87 | 0.62–4.98 | 2.56 | 0.82–7.06 | 1.92 | 0.64–5.02 |
| JBCRG-03 | 1.42 | 0.57–3.42 | 1.44 | 0.59–3.44 | 1.38 | 0.57–3.28 | 1.41 | 0.58–3.34 | 1.33 | 0.55–3.13 |
| Pathologic response | ||||||||||
| pCR | 0.12** | 0.02–0.43 | 0.17* | 0.03–0.62 | 0.16* | 0.01–0.84 | 0.30 | 0.04–1.18 | 0.45 | 0.02–2.43 |
| Age | 0.98 | 0.94–1.03 | 0.98 | 0.94–1.03 | 0.98 | 0.94–1.03 | 0.98 | 0.94–1.02 | 0.98 | 0.94–1.02 |
| Tumor size | ||||||||||
| >3 cm | 2.03 | 0.98–4.54 | 2.14* | 1.03–4.80 | 2.16* | 1.03–4.86 | 2.22* | 1.07–4.95 | 2.25* | 1.08–5.07 |
| Nuclear grade | ||||||||||
| Grade 3 | 1.07 | 0.39–2.81 | 1.14 | 0.42–2.97 | 1.17 | 0.44–3.03 | 1.31 | 0.49–3.33 | 1.30 | 0.49–3.31 |
| Nodal status | ||||||||||
| n+ | 3.05** | 1.47–6.63 | 3.18** | 1.54–6.91 | 2.69** | 1.29–5.96 | 3.85** | 1.86–8.33 | 3.49** | 1.68–7.72 |
| Clinical response (CR, PR) | ||||||||||
| After the first half of NAC | 0.76 | 0.33–1.71 | 0.70 | 0.31–1.56 | 0.71 | 0.32–1.57 | 0.72 | 0.33–1.59 | 0.71 | 0.32–1.57 |
| Before surgery | 0.55 | 0.25–1.26 | 0.58 | 0.26–1.32 | 0.54 | 0.24–1.23 | 0.53 | 0.24–1.20 | 0.51 | 0.22–1.15 |
| Subtype | ||||||||||
| Luminal/Her2-positive | 2.73 | 0.60–9.08 | 2.14 | 0.48–6.85 | 1.84 | 0.42–5.81 | 2.04 | 0.46–6.56 | 1.83 | 0.41–5.80 |
| Her2-positive | 3.31 | 0.88–10.19 | 2.79 | 0.74–8.53 | 2.28 | 0.61–6.83 | 2.17 | 0.58–6.53 | 1.93 | 0.52–5.82 |
| Triple negative | 4.92** | 2.07–11.42 | 4.85** | 2.04–11.29 | 2.94** | 1.67–9.07 | 4.23** | 1.78–9.78 | 3.59** | 1.54–8.17 |
* p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01
CI confidence interval, CR complete response, HR hazard ratio, n+ node positive, PR partial response