Fig. 2.

Local optima of the objective function corresponding to the Goodwin’s oscillator case study (GOsc). Figure a shows the distribution of the final objective function values of 10,000 runs of local solver NL2SOL from randomly chosen initial points based on Latin hypercube sampling. The distribution of the local optima shows that only 6 % of the runs finished in the close vicinity of the global optima (minimum objective function value: 9.8903). Figure b shows the fit corresponding to the global optima (global solution – GS). Figure c depicts the fit corresponding to the most frequently achieved local minima (local solution – LS, objective function value: 148.25). Note the qualitatively wrong behaviour of this fit, i.e. the lack of oscillations in the predictions